The Conference on the Global Movement of Moderates has come to a close today. At Conferences like these I always try and speak to different people particularly foreigners for their views about things. I also speak to Malaysians of course.
I spoke to a foreign Ambassador and a young woman entrepreneur with a Phd in Science who runs a "knowledge" business in the West. Both were non Muslim. The young woman expressed reservations that there was too much quoting from the Quran at a conference on Moderation, particularly on the first day. The Ambassador was more direct - he said 'the less I say the better'.
I can understand their feelings. You cannot go to a conference on Moderation and say bluntly "There can only be one God and one religion". It makes everyone else feel most uncomfortable. This was exactly what was said by a speaker from Turkey. There is no need for me to say which religion he was referring to.
One local Blogger was quite unhappy that the very last speaker at the Conference today (a Lunch Talk where no questions are allowed thereby sparing the speaker from being questioned) was a retired Admiral from the American Navy - Admiral Dennis Blair. The Admiral broke the mould of the entire theme of 'Moderation'. He made a most hawkish and war mongering speech.
I understood his speech to simply mean 'you can be a moderate if you want to, but when it is neccessary you have to get blood on your hands'.
I really dont know why they invited this Admiral to a conference of Moderates. And the guy was also at one time Director of National Intelligence - one of those dozens of American spy agencies. To top it off, our Minister of Defence was given the "honour" of introducing him where our Minister proudly proclaimed that the Admiral's family had six generations of service in the US Military. Six generations of his father, grandfather and beyond who bombed and shot at people. What a great family tradition for a "moderate".
The Admiral was actually scheduled to speak yesterday in a regular session where there would be Q & A. But these are Americans, they dont like Q & A in an unknown environment. There were no questions allowed in the luncheon talk today. Surprisingly the Prime Minister was present for his talk. And before the talk, our Prime Minister even had a closed door session with the Admiral. A case of the white man telling the natives : "take me to your leader". Or maybe he discussed the date for the attack on Iran. Who knows?
In his speech, Admiral Blair spoke of the 'security architecture' and 'security balance' around the world. Security architecture is putting in place systems that need not necessarily create peace but through a display of arms, they prevent outright violence or war from breaking out.
The Admiral quoted Korea as an example where he said the security threats were settled by a 'balance of power'. "I have so many tanks facing your so many tanks" or "I have so many missiles facing your so many missiles".
This is a typical hawkish, war mongering type of attitude. There is no need to seek permanent solutions or seek common interests. Lets just point our guns at each other day and night and hope the guns dont go off.
There was the same war mongering attitude when he spoke about Iran. The Admiral said that Iran was "previously kept in check by Iraq". Now only the United States can "check their power." In the same breath the Admiral said there were some countries with whom "there was little scope for consultation". What a fantastic closing speech at a conference on Global Moderates.
Folks, they are going to bomb Iran. Someone better call Ahmedinajad the Holy Warrior and let him know.
To conclude, here is an update on the tense situation in the Persian Gulf region. This one is from Stratfor Global Intelligence - on Iran and the Middle East crisis. I have truncated the article down to the main points.
- Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis.
- .any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz constituted a red line for Washington.
- a chemist associated with Iran's nuclear program was killed in Tehran.
- This week, a routine rotation of U.S. aircraft carriers is taking place in the Middle East, with the potential for three carrier strike groups to be on station in the U.S. Fifth Fleet's area of operations and a fourth carrier strike group based in Japan about a week's transit from the region.
(My comments : This is a significant point. To carry out any attack on Iran, three or four carrier strike groups must be in place)
- Next week, Gen. Michael Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will travel to Israel to meet with senior Israeli officials.
(My comments : A significant point again. The Chairman of the JCS is head of the US Military. The question is is he going to give orders or take orders from Israel?)
The U.S.-Iranian Dynamic
- ..U.S. invasion of Iraq and the subsequent decision to withdraw created a massive power vacuum in Iraq that Iran needed -- and was able -- to fill.
- It is the strength of Tehran's covert capabilities and influence that makes Iran significant. Iran's covert intelligence capability is quite good. It has spent decades building political alliances by a range of means, and not only by nefarious methods.
The Syrian Angle
- Should the Assad regime -- or the Syrian regime without al Assad -- survive, Iran would therefore enjoy tremendous influence with Syria, as well as with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The current course in Iraq coupled with the survival of an Alawite regime in Syria would create an Iranian sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean.
- It is not in the interests of the United States, however.
My comments : The US is getting out of Iraq with their tail between their legs again - another "dignified retreat" like Vietnam (1975), Beirut (1983), Somalia (1993) and Afghanistan (in 2014??). Every where the Americans interfere militarily, eventually they get their butts kicked and they leave in shame. And this is despite taking on the poorest countries in the world to be bullied (which have no air force, no indoor plumbing, no paved roads).
This time around, the US withdrawal from Iraq will leave Iran as the largest military power in the Middle East. More importantly and more dangerously Shia Iran will become the largest ideological power in the region.
Iraq has a Shia majority. So do the small countries in the Gulf like Bahrain, Qatar and others. Syria is ruled by Shias. Hizbollah the most powerful military force in Lebanon is also Shia. 45% of Lebanese Muslims are Shia. There is going to be a huge Shia resurgence in the Middle East.
At the Global Movement of Moderates Conference, one Shia Ayatollah from Iran presented a paper in which he included the "Concept of the Messiah". He said this was the Mahdi. They believe in the Second Coming of the Mahdi. In order for the Mahdi to arrive (he will literally pop in from the sky ok) Shia Iran must first become militarily strong. Otherwise the Mahdi will not come. This is their belief.
That is also why Ahmedinajad is rushing headlong with his nuclear development.
The problem is a resurgent Iran will threaten : 1. Israel 2. Saudi Arabia and 3. all the oil producing and non oil producing Sunni countries in the region. Afghanistan and Pakistan also hate Iran (from a religious ideology point of view).
So if the US decides to attack Iran or the US supports an Israeli attack on Iran, there will be plenty of support from other countries around the region. There are simply too many people in the area who do not like Iran.
I think when that American General Michael Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff meets the Israeli generals this week they will tell him "I told you so".
My conclusion : Buy oil now.
14 comments:
Tuan Syed, you spoke about the resurgence of the Shiah in thre Middle East. As we all know from time immemorial iaitu sebelum Amerika Syarikat, Israel and the West,Shiahs and Sunnis were always on conflict mode.
Now the nucleas of Isranian growth is already in Malaysia. Only three countries in the WORLD give visa on entry to Iranians. Turkey, Turkeministan and our selamat datang semua Malayia. These Iranians are already running riot in Malaysia and just see whats happening in Bukit Bintang. Just read about Iranians being caught for drug trafficking. Disebalik chador hitam sembunyi dadah.
Now my point I am making is this, it is only a matter of time when Iranians population will grow and then we will have Melayu-Iran golongan Shiah and woila ! thats when apa yang berlaku di Middle-Esat berkurun-kurun will be happening here.
Jangan salahkan DAP ia, but our dumb-ass menteri amaran dalam negeri.
Tuan Syed, the presence of 3 aircraft carriers tu nak deter Iran from closing the Hormuz Straits,,,
The real intention is to belasah Syria,,,
Satu lagi pertimbangan, masa perang Iraq dulu, depa bantai dari udara dulu sebelum turunkan ground troops... in case of Iran, kalau depa bantai dari udara sahaja, US troops kat Iraq dan Afghan is open game from Mehdis and Talibans respectively, sebab tu la depa dah keluarkan tergsa-gesa ni...
SYED ALI AKBAR
allo syed,
-without the americunt and union jock support of the arab regimes. the whole arabian lands should be by now under shiah arabs domination. that why these arab nations never even dare to embrace democracy as these autocratic rulers and their sunnis die hard followers will lose power just like iraq. so they whether willingly or unwillingly have to suck the west for a favor where the west would not interfere their domestic issues such as human rights and democracy.
-no doubt iran will suffer greatly should the americunt, israel and their gangs start the war. however if china and russia really stick with iran, wwIII is inevitable. without the direct support from russia and china, iranian splinter cells could still lunch guerrilla warfare thus creating chaos in some part of the world. bottom line is oil will be very expensive.
SAA:
Firstly, North Korea has one of the largest standing army in the world; so the US military presence is there is not about head count - ie how many tanks US have there don't matter much. If North Korea wants to push through, they can. The US presence is to send a message that they will be involve in the conflict there.
Also, the US is not a country run by a single person for 20+ years. Administration changes, policy changes. Bush-Cheney wanted decades of war, Obama promised a pull out. So they pull out. Vietnam ended because the people (US citizens) revolted. As for Beirut, that should be hailed as an exemplary moved by Reagan - to cut your losses over something that is not strategic. They could have run down Beirut if they wanted to after that Marine barrack bombing, but the Reagan admin decided that vengeance will get them nowhere in the long run.
So just in case you don't know what is going on in the US - support Ron Paul. Find out what he is saying. He got more campaign donation from military personnel than Obama and all the republican candidates put together. Hope that tells you something..
Btw;. Didn't Iraninans themselves attacked Iran (ayatollah's regime).
Remove the Ayatollah, and the iranians/persians will just be disco dancing with the Israelis while eating humus and baba ganush.
There is hardly any differences between these 2 people.
Syed Ali Akhbar:
What makes you think the Taliban will retaliate if Iran is attacked? Do you know which country helped the US entry into Afghan to fight the Taliban after 9/11 ? Iran.
US : I want to kill some wahabi Talibans.
Iran : No problem my friend. Tell me what you need...
US attacked Iran tomorrow, Talibans will shoot their AK-47 in the air and make kenduri doa selamat.
There is something that the Wahabi and Shi'ah hates more than the US.. Each other.
"Moderates, Iran, Yankee Go Home, Oil Prices"
Syed,
Just to share this...
May 21, 2010 Dennis C. Blair News – “...His often tumultuous tenure was marked by frequent clashes with White House officials and other spy chiefs in America's still fractured intelligence apparatus.
Mr. Blair's exit after little more than a year came as the White House was facing thorny decisions about Iran's nuclear program, the future of Afghanistan and the spread of militancy from Pakistan's tribal areas.
It also fueled new doubts about the success, and wisdom, of the major intelligence overhaul in 2004 that created the spymaster position.
The departure of Mr. Blair had been rumored for months, but was made official when President Obama called him on May 20 and asked him to step down.
Mr. Blair's relationship with the White House was rocky since the start of the Obama administration, and he fought a rear-guard action against efforts by the Central Intelligence Agency to cut down the size and power of the national intelligence director's staff. He was the first high-ranking member of the Obama national security team to depart.
Born out of the intelligence debacle before the Iraq war, the intelligence director's post was intended to force greater cooperation within a hidebound intelligence bureaucracy, and to ensure that America's spies were better equipped to prevent a repeat of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
The relationship between Mr. Blair and Mr. Obama had been characterized as professional but not close, and some administration officials said Mr. Blair often felt cut out of discussions about important security matters.
But Mr. Blair also fought battles inside the intelligence ranks. In the summer of 2009, he clashed with Leon E. Panetta, the C.I.A. director, over the appointment of the senior American spies overseas.
Mr. Panetta went so far as to issue a memorandum to C.I.A. operatives telling them to disregard a directive that Mr. Blair had sent a day earlier.
Mr. Blair considered Mr. Panetta's move an act of insubordination, intelligence officials said.
Mr. Blair had to step down as president of the Institute for Defense Analyses amid concerns that his positions on several corporate boards constituted a conflict of interest.
The Pentagon's inspector general later concluded that he had violated the institute's conflict-of-interest standards by serving on the board of a military contractor working on the Air Force F-22 jet while the institute was evaluating the program for the Pentagon. The inspector general found, however, that Mr. Blair did not influence the organization's analysis of the F-22 program.
He is known as a cerebral and intense workaholic. Yet he also tried to water ski behind a Navy destroyer while commanding the ship in Japan. An avid fisherman who speaks Russian, he was in the same Naval Academy graduating class as Oliver North and Senator Jim Webb of Virginia.
He was passed over for chairman of the Joint Chiefs by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, who considered him too independent and was wary of his views on engagement in Asia..."
Dennis C. Blair News - The New York Times - http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/dennis_c_blair/index.html
You be the judge.
Shalom.
Syed,
Talking about Oil, just to share this...
January 19, 2012 - Next week, Gen. Michael Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will travel to Israel to meet with senior Israeli officials.
And Iran is scheduling another set of war games in the Persian Gulf for February that will focus on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' irregular tactics for closing the Strait of Hormuz.
While tensions are escalating in the Persian Gulf, the financial crisis in Europe has continued, with downgrades in France's credit rating the latest blow.
Meanwhile, China continued its struggle to maintain exports in the face of economic weakness among its major customers while inflation continued to increase the cost of Chinese exports.
Fundamental changes in how Europe and China work and their long-term consequences represent the major systemic shifts in the international system.
In the more immediate future, however, the U.S.-Iranian dynamic has the most serious potential consequences for the world...
The normal outcome of a situation like this one, in which neither Iran nor the United States can afford to cross the other's red lines since the consequences would be too great for each, would be some sort of negotiation toward a longer-term accommodation.
Ideology aside -- and the United States negotiating with the "Axis of Evil" or Iran with the "Great Satan" would be tough sells to their respective domestic audiences -- the problem with this is that it is difficult to see what each has to offer the other.
What Iran wants -- a dominant position in the region and a redefinition of how oil revenues are allocated and distributed -- would make the United States dependent on Iran.
What the United States wants -- an Iran that does not build a sphere of influence but instead remains within its borders -- would cost Iran a historic opportunity to assert its longstanding claims.
We find ourselves in a situation in which neither side wants to force the other into extreme steps and neither side is in a position to enter into broader accommodations. And that's what makes the situation dangerous.
When fundamental issues are at stake, each side is in a position to profoundly harm the other if pressed, and neither side is in a position to negotiate a broad settlement, a long game of chess ensues.
And in that game of chess, the possibilities of miscalculation, of a bluff that the other side mistakes for an action, are very real.
Europe and China are redefining the way the world works. But kingdoms run on oil, as someone once said, and a lot of oil comes through Hormuz.
Iran may or may not be able to close the strait, and that reshapes Europe and China. The New Year thus begins where we expected: at the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis | STRATFOR - http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/iran-us-and-strait-hormuz-crisis
You be the judge.
Shalom.
One God need not mean One religion.Although there is only one summit,there are many different path toward arriving at the same summit.People who say their religion is more superior than other do not as a fact understand their own religion.
If all is one,can anything be left out.From the one essnse of gold,it can be moulded into a beautiful model or that of an ugly monster.Both are none the less GOLD.
Duality is what mankind inherited from Adam ingesting the Forbiddrn fruit of knowledge of good and bad [covering all secular knowledge]A child below one year of age have not got the worldly knwledge to discriminate and life is a play of JOY.The child have no concept of me and mine,Their innocence is wisdom and not ignorence.
Lord Jesus told his disciple upon seeing a child of six month,that if any of them can have the child mental state,the person is already in the kingdom of his father.
The Melayus, when become a leader, they ask all Melayus to become moderates, at the end all Melayus lose their belongings bt by bit. Non-Melayus never tell their people to be moderates, instead they want to be the strongest.
Now Melayu leader ask muslim people all over the world to be moderate, while all non-muslim leaders never ask all non-muslims to be moderate, instead they want to be the strongest.
Sudahlah, pemimpin Melayu jangan jadi bodoh.
i think Malaysia can be a 'Model' for this global movement of moderates,so far we are spared of extreme violence unlike in other muslim countries.
'..this conference seeks cardinal responsibility to respect differences..'NST
my comment: isn't a bit paradox? on one hand , we promote mutual respect, on the other hand, we catch ppl of other sects and charge them of 'deviant' teaching
Imam Mahdick is already here. He dares not go to Iran but prefers Turkey.
DPM says the root causes of extremism are economic alienation, political exclusion and social deprivation (star).
i wonder the above are also the causes of the sectarian feud between sunni and shiah
it's wrong to link islam with terrorism, it is the extremist/s who perpetuate crimes in the name of religion , to be blamed.
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It seems that it's just the supreme kind of laziness... both which as well as Tyson was clearly pissed with receiving the project and thus as opposed to either moving their subjects- or even finding people that Made any resolution- they returned with a report that "nothing occurred.Inch
Consequently don't whine that will we have now forgotten this kind of space for attempting to develop a long-form tome a number of morning; following four years (this specific month) at this we could often explain to WOW Gold the same story yet again or perhaps get back through to an all-too-familiar soapbox which perhaps Cheap WOW Gold people who agree with us all are weary involving.
At a time of great division amongst communities across the world on grounds of race, faith or gender we require a coming together of people to say no to division and hatred and this Summit is the beginning.
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