Wednesday, February 19, 2025

ORANG MELAYU MESTI BACA - LUBANG BENAM (SINKHOLE) YANG MAKIN BESAR

 

In 2023 our GDP was about US$400 Billion (World Bank)
In 2024 the GDP was about US$425 billion (dont know who's projection).
US$425 billion = RM1,882 billion or RM1.9 TRILLION.
In June 2024 the gomen's cumulative national debt (jumlah hutang kerajaan) was RM1,200 Billion or RM1.2 TRILLION or 63% of our GDP. 
  • For this year's Budget (2025) the total gomen revenue was RM340 billion.  
  • Total expenditure was RM421 billion. 
  • Hence the shortfall / deficit  was RM81 Billion. 
  • So the hutang kerajaan increased by another RM81 billion.

Here is some basic calculation (rule of thumb ok but you will get the idea).

1. For 2025 the deficit of RM81 billion is about 24% of gomen revenue of RM340B. If the gomen revenue increased by 24% then there will be NO DEFICIT of RM81 billion.

Again by rule of thumb (because it does not work in this way) if the size of the GDP increases by 24% from RM1.9 TRILLION to say RM2.4 TRILLION, then the gomen revenue should increase by 24% and cover that deficit of RM81 billion. 

2. Here is another rough calculation. This one focusses on corporate taxes from corporate activity. Meaning regular businesses, with books, proper records, bank accounts etc.

Lets say our GDP can suddenly jump and increase by about 1.4 times and become  RM2,700B or RM2.7 TRILLION.

This means another RM2.7 TRILLION worth of sales and economic activity are added in our economy by Malaysian corporations.  This means the number of cars and trucks on the roads, bulldozers and excavators at construction sites, apartments, condos, highways, LRTs, factories, hotels, resorts, shopping complexes, supermarkets etc all increase by 1.4 times. The number of jobs in the country increases by 1.40 times. The entire business activity of our country increase by 1.4 times.

Then we roughly calculate the amount of corporate taxes alone that can be collected from an extra RM2.7 TRILLION worth of GDP.

Lets say our businesses are very efficient and they can generate on average  10% profit before tax. So from RM2.7 TRILLION extra GDP, the taxable income is RM270 Billion.

Say the tax rate (average, rule of thumb, corporate tax plus sales tax plus donno what other tax) = 30%.

So from the extra RM270 billion taxable income, the tax fellows can collect 30% taxes = RM81 Billion extra tax income. Which will cover that deficit of RM81 billion in the 2025 Budget.

So just to cover the deficit of RM81 Billion in the 2025 Budget alone our GDP must increase to more than RM2.4 Trillion (from the present RM1.9 TRILLION).

What about the rest of the accumulated gomen debt of RM1,200 Billion or RM1.2 TRILLION? 

Again by rough rule of thumb, our GDP must multiply to about 14 times more than its present size to generate enough tax revenue to pay off all the hutang kerajaan of RM1.2 TRILLION.

So Tuan-Tuan the gomen's finances are quite screwed.  And this will have an effect on the whole country.

But where did all the money go to? Sekolah rosak, hospital tak cukup doctor, equipment rosak, hospital tak cukup ubat.  And then RM100 million for Palestine, reconstruction of Gaza etc.

But here is the real super whammy. When (not if) the Sarawak fellows get their cut of the oil and gas revenue then our syarikat minyak is going to lose a substantial portion of their annual revenues. Some suggest about 30% but we dont know for sure. And the oil earnings contribute a huge chunk to the gomen's revenues. Meaning the gomen's deficit is going to increase. The gomen is going to have to borrow even more money. 

Already the syarikat minyak has said that this year there will be no salary increments for their staff, no bonuses and they may have to let go about 12,000?? of their people.

What happens when the gomen borrows more money?The gomen will be competing with the economy (me, you, the businessmen in the country) to borrow from the limited amount of funds available in the economy. Interest rates will go up. 
 
When interest rates go up, prices will most certainly also move up. Inflation will increase.
 
And with all the restrictions in the economy (quotas, licenses, permits, monopolies, oligopolies, gomen licensed cartels aka the Dasar Ekonomi Bebal) the productivity of the economy is stunted. We are not operating at optimum. Our population is increasing, Minimum Wages are increasing but our productivity is less. The value of the Ringgit will fall even more. 
 
This thing does not happen in one day. It takes years. The fall of the Ringgit is already happening. In 1985-86 the Ringgit was at parity with the Singapore Dollar. Now the Sing Dollar is at RM3.40. The Ringgit is now at RM4.40 to the US Dollar. Comparatively that is how much productivity we have lost. And when the Ringgit falls that will also fuel inflation. It  will worsen inflationary pressure in the economy. 

THANK YOU DASAR EKONOMI BEBAL (DEB).

Now, if our economy is managed properly and our GDP had expanded by another 24% then the gomen would have collected about another RM81 Billion in tax revenue to cancel the deficit for 2025.

But the gomen is not trying their best to grow the economy. The Dasar Ekonomi Bebal is still in place with its choking quotas, monopolies, oligopolies, franchises, 30 year concessions, licenses, permits, restrictions, cartels etc. They can only generate RM340 billion in revenue for 2025. 

Now they are going to lose about a third of the oil revenues to Sarawak.

So in a situation where the Dasar Ekonomi Bebal only knows how to shrink the size of the cake, the gomen is increasing the taxes imposed on the economy. The Sales Tax has been increased 33% (from 6% to 8% is a 33% increase). Other taxes are going up. Quit rents and assessments are going up.

The gomen is choking the economy more and more which prevents the economy from growing as fast as it is capable of. As the Missy once said, 'You cannot make the people rich by taxing them'. 

Anywhere in the world wealth and productivity is relative to your neighbours. Our currency is falling like a stone compared to our neighbours and trading partners. (Please do not compare with Zimbabwe or Myanmar). Our per capita GDP is decreasing relative to those with whom we were at par or close. 

That loss in oil and gas revenue to Sarawak is going to be a huge nail in the coffin.

Tuan-Tuan orang Melayu, please wake up. Your well being is so dependent on gomen expenditure. On tax revenues. You need to really increase the number of geese which can lay golden eggs.

Please forward this view of mine around your friends and community. And talk about it. Discuss things objectively and honestly. 


lubuk buat duit untuk menjahanamkan negara!


https://permadumalaysia.blogspot.com/2025/02/sedap-berkhidmat-di-jabatan-imigresen.html?m=1

Dapat duit rasuah RM42,000 sehari!

Sindiket ‘fly’ terus beroperasi?

Agen Pakistan?

Rasuah dan KL-A berpisah tiada.

Tidak menakutkan kakitangan kalau setakat kena transfer jika ditangkap rasuah.

Want To Import Another 100,000 Of Them?

 

I am not uploading the video.  Here is a link :   https://youtu.be/VhRqAhMun_s?si=-rQuV8cHAqoYCe5y

If you want to you can copy paste the link and watch the video yourself. Apparently those people are showing their displeasure again. 

None of the Arab countries want them. Even their own bangsa do not want them. 

  • The Banglas can work in the factories. 
  • The Indians work in the restaurants. 
  • The Pakistanis cut grass. 
  • The Indonesians still work construction. 
  • What can these people do?

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

DAP : Nepotism, cronyism, future direction uncertain ?

 


 

  • veteran DAP leaders concerns about “deep state” within party
  • led by younger party members aiming to unseat key senior leaders
  • Comparisons to 1990s “Kick Out Kit Siang” (KOKS) campaign
  • no attention being paid to how senior leaders marginalized younger leaders
  • survival of many senior leaders depended on political purges over the years
  • last general election, senior Indian leader purged from contesting 
  • prior to 2003 state elections, several outspoken Indian leaders removed
  • Could these actions be considered the work of the “deep state”?
  • no one used such terminology when senior leaders marginalized others
  • DAP no stranger to generational conflicts and power struggles
  • Is it acceptable to employ undemocratic measures to sideline opponents ?
  • Opposition to family-based factions has simmered for years 
  • now a more prominent source of internal conflict
  • Nepotism, cronyism among senior party leaders cannot be defended
  • grievances fueling frustrations among the younger leaders
  • factional conflicts influenced by differing attitudes toward Malay hegemony
  • Senior leaders more aggressive 
  • younger leaders more willing to adapt (OSTB : More lembik)
  • younger leaders have abandoned “Malaysian Malaysia”
  • party elections in March 
  • “do or die” struggle between generations
  • DAP begun to resemble MCA
  • future direction of the DAP remains uncertain.
  • P. Ramasamy


My Comments :

Some time in 2008 I attended a DAP victory dinner after an election victory in Klang. This was during the Badawi regime. I went with Raja Petra and we were hosted by Ronnie Liu. In 2008 DAP had won Penang, Selangor and Perak - a major feat.

At that time PAS was with DAP. So the Pas fellows were present. There were scantily clad girls singing and dancing on stage which the Pas fellows did not seem to mind at all. 

Then there were speeches and singing DAP fight songs. Then there was this issuing of certificates to new DAP branches. Setting up a new DAP branch was quite 'exclusive'. The party has a strict vetting system before a new branch can be set up. (Unlike UMNO where we organised ourselves and simply set up a new branch and informed the State HQ and we became another cawangan Umno).

But I noticed that the new DAP branches being set up were populated by trades people - contractors, small businesses etc. (some of them appeared onstage). Of course this is quite normal because the Chinese community is almost 100% self employed. They are the businessmen and the trades people. 

Ten years later in 2018 the DAP took over the federal government. They lost it in 2020 but came back in 2022. And 17 years later they still have Penang and Selangor.  Since 2022, in Perak and Pahang there can be no state government without cooperation between UMNO and the DAP. So the DAP is now a mega player in how the country is being run.

In the 17 years that the DAP has been in power in Selangor (plus now holding five of  11? Parliamentary seats in Kuala Lumpur) KL is now said to have the FOURTH HIGHEST NUMBER of the world's tallest buildings. 



Malaysia currently holds the fourth position globally in terms of the number of skyscrapers, with a significant number of tall buildings within its borders, particularly concentrated in Kuala Lumpur.  Source: Information based on data from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)

My comments :  The perjuangan can get lost among all these skyscrapers.


Friday, December 27, 2024

FRIDAY NOTES (27/12/2024) FROM THE QURAN : THE SUNNATULLAH DOES NOT CHANGE

Non-Muslims can skip this. But it is really very brief. Two minutes reading max.

Today I tried something new. I have begun using Chat GPT for some of my research and writing. Chat GPT is the AI Search engine. But you have to double check it very carefully.

Today for this Friday column I typed in "Sunnatullah verses in the Quran" and within seconds the following popped up. 

I had to do plenty editing because Chat GPT threw up verses which did not mention the word Sunnatullah.   And then Chat GPT tried to explain that those verses were also part of the concept of Sunnatullah.  

To me that is stretching things too far. If the word that I am searching for (eg sunnatullah) is NOT found in that verse then dont say it is. It will only lead to unnecessary argument.

The Chat GPT AI is just a Search tool.  It does not think for itself. It merely sources what others have said about a topic and strings it together.   It is not free of 'garbage in and garbage out'. Especially about religious topics.  So I have to read and edit the material.

In the Quran, the term "Sunnatullah" (سنة الله) or 'sunnah of Allah'  often implies the natural laws that govern the universe. The "Sunnah of Allah" refers to the principles by which Allah manages His creation.

Here are two verses in the Quran where the concept of 'Sunnatullah' (the way or law of Allah) is mentioned:

1. Surah Al-Ahzab (33:62)  - "This is the way of Allah (سنة الله), which has occurred in the past. And you will never find in the way of Allah (سنة الله) any change." -  Translation (Sahih International).

This verse speaks of the unchanging nature of the principles that govern the world which remain constant. It cannot change.

2. Surah Al-Fath (48:23) -  "Such has been the practice of Allah already with those who have passed away. And you will never find in the practice of Allah any change" -  Translation (Sahih International).

This verse reinforces the idea that Allah’s methods or laws are consistent across time and cannot be changed.  After the sun sets, we go to sleep at night with great confidence that the sun will rise again tomorrow morning.

What all this means is that after coming into being and everything in the universe has been set in order, the Creation cannot change haphazardly. If there is change, and most certainly there is change (like the seasons change from spring, summer, fall and winter) it will happen according to the Laws of the Universe.

But things like these cannot happen :

 




Elephants walk on the ground and there is no Superman. Flying elephants and Superman are domains of the imagination.

CHINESE FREIGHT TRAIN POPS ANOTHER SURPRISE - 6TH GENERATION JET.

 


China has done it again. Now China introduces some new science, some new technology and its manifestation - some new industrial product almost every other week. Otherwise known as Made in China. This week the aviation industry is buzzing with China's 'introduction' of a really unimaginable 6th generation fighter-bomber aircraft. The plane flew in the open and someone captured it on video. The aviation geeks are going wild. 

The plane is huge. It has no name yet. It is about 60 feet wide. That is three terrace houses wide. The length is slightly over 60 feet as well. And the plane has THREE engines in a row - unheard of before.  And listen to this - there are TWO air intakes on the sides and a THIRD air intake on top of the plane. 

Here is a quickie on what is a 6th generation fighter jet, and then a short video that shows the actual plane flying in the air. 

Key components of 6th generation technology are:

  • Stealth: More advanced, multi-spectrum stealth technologies.
  • Autonomy: Significant integration of AI and potentially uncrewed operations.
  • Sensors: Enhanced sensor fusion and interconnected data-sharing between platforms.
  • Propulsion: More efficient, advanced engines for sustained supersonic flight and better fuel economy.
  • Weapons: Potential for directed energy weapons (lasers) and hypersonic munitions.
  • EW & Cyber: Enhanced electronic warfare and cyber capabilities.
  • Operations: Crewed or optionally-crewed missions with potential for fully autonomous flights.
  • Range and Endurance: Improved operational range, longer loiter times, and better mission endurance.

Here is a short video. 

 

Conclusion : No other country in the world can even come close to what the Chinese have flown in the sky. The plane is already flying and has been captured on video. They will fine tune the hardware and the manufacturing processes. They will also load up the electronics arrays, the weapons systems, the AI etc.

Here is my prediction - in say five years this plane will become outdated. The Chinese follow this philosophy - the latest model in operation now, the next upgrade already at advanced design or prototype stage and the third generation on the drawing boards.  The Chinese philosophy is to continuously improve.

Recall what I posted earlier about Chinese EVs taking over the world automotive market.  Since my post Honda, Nissan and Mitsubishi have announced that they are merging. Mitsondasan? Honisubishi? 

Its too late.