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Friday, November 17, 2017

Politics Is The Art Of The Possible

The people here are supposed to be antagonists. The guy in the sling says he was sent to jail based on false charges cooked up by the guy sitting beside him. Jailed for FIVE years or something. That is NOT something trifling or tiny. 

Being locked up in jail even for FIVE DAYS on false charges is a pretty serious crime - by the perpetrator of the false charges.

But look at this picture (very recent I think).  

They are all smiles.  Except for that  incredible woman-of-steel (whatever her many shortcomings are) in the tudung. 

(I would like to digress a little. History will one day write about Wan Azizah as the epitome of the perfect, obedient, pious and long suffering wife.  

Despite all the things I have said about her politics, I must record my sincere admiration for Wan Azizah's absolute loyalty to her husband.  It is almost unbelievable.

Allahuma solli alaikum Datin Sri. May Allah shower his support upon you for your tenacity and your commitment to your husband and your family.)

Ok, back to the picture. Wan Azizah is the only person in this picture who is not smiling.  She just wants her husband back. In more ways than one.

I hear that Anwar Ibrahim is set to be released from jail around April next year. That is after deducting the usual 1/3 of the jail sentence.  But it need not be so.  They can always make him go full term.

Everyone inside this picture is desperate.  Politics is the art of the possible.

Imagine a political union between UMNO - PAS - PKR. I have already discussed this possibility before.  It will surely strengthen the BN.

Where will that place the Pakatan Harapan?

If there is going to be a union between UMNO - PAS - PKR it need not happen before the general elections. 

It can even happen AFTER the results of the election are known.  

As the stomach churns.


Economy Grinding To A Halt - Petronas Jalan Bangsar Tutup, McDonald's (Lower Ground Flr) MidValley Tutup.

First here is more "tutup kedai", "tutup kilang" and "tutup pintu" news from around Malaysia.  I did not create this news ok. I am merely "re-reporting" what has already been reported. Jangan marah saya tau.

  • companies shut down because of (GST), says 2nd Finance Minister Johari Abdul
  • Malay Chamber of Commerce M'yia told Malaysian Insight on Oct 20 GST caused many Malay businesses to close shop.
  • Customs collected RM41.2b GST last year – higher than RM39b target set.

So at last the Minister himself agrees that the GST  has caused companies to shut down.  

I have been saying this since BEFORE the GST was implemented. 
I have been saying this for over THREE YEARS now. 
You implement the GST, you kill the economy.

Here is more "tutup pintu" news :

  • Govt: 40 foreign companies moved overseas in past 4 years
  • MITI Minister Mustapa Mohamed told Dewan Rakyat 
  • 40 foreign companies closed, moved to other countries since 2013.
  • written reply to question from Fong Kui Lun (DAP-Bukit Bintang) 
  • drop in sales, demand, weak market environment among factors

Again I did not say this either. It is Dato Mustapha Mohamed the Minister of the MITI who said this.  40 foreign companies have moved out of Malaysia in the past four years.

Now here are some comments on the GST by my friend Dato Akbar Ali, the former Senator from Melaka and the former Head of the UPEN Melaka (Economic Planning Unit, Melaka). Dato Akbar Ali is trained in Statistics and Mathematics.

  • Private consumption is our major economic driver
  • contributing >60% to our GDP. 
  • It's reflected in the retail sales.
It's now under stress.

Recently it was reported that 6 Giant outlets were closing down.

A few Aeon outlets have also closed down but were not publicised.

Same with Parkson & NSK.

Main reason: poor sales. 
Some were blaming on the GST.
Many hyper stores also recorded lower sales.

Overall, most hyper stores recorded lower sales.

So imagine if prices increased by say 5%. 
Negative sales are 10%
So if one hyper store  chain does RM3b sales per year,  hence sales are down by RM300m

Not counting yet, lower margins trying to keep turnover from dropping further. 
Very stressful indeed.

So imagine if one adds up the sales of Giant RM5b + Tesco RM5b + NSK / Econsave RM2b + Aeon RM3b = RM15b ! 

They would have lost sales of at least RM1.5b !!


Our economy/GDP will definitely be impacted.

Higher unemployment, lower income and increased poverty will be the contagious outcome.


Dato Akbar Ali
7 Sept 2017.

My comments :  

Terima kasih Dato Akbar Ali.    

There were TWO McDonald's outlets in Mid Valley Megamall.  I just found out yesterday that one of them (at the LG level) has closed down about a month ago.  That is news for me.  I have never known a McDonald's outlet to shut down anywhere, even in Malaysia.

Then the Petronas station at Jalan Bangsar (just before the Jalan Riong junction) has also shut down about a month back.  I believe petrol stations are already having a tough time surviving. Many petrol stations have indeed shut down.

Have you read the following news : in Balik Pulau, Penang roadside vendors are now selling petrol in plastic bottles.

  • sundry traders reselling fuel in bottles
  • ready market for it given distance to nearest petrol station
  • roadside trader offering bottled petrol at slightly higher price
  • 1.5L plastic bottles of petrol in small lorry
  • sells bottled petrol as conve­nience to townsfolk 
  • nearest petrol station many kilometres away
  • bottled petrol makes life easier for people of Teluk Kumbar
Read more at  The Star

No petrol stations in Balik Pulau !!  

I think they have either shut down or relocated.  Because people have less money to drive cars and motorcycles, there is not enough business anymore to sustain petrol stations in these largely Malay areas.  

So these roadside vendors are now selling petrol in bottles.

Petrol stations and hypermarts are closing down in the predominantly Malay / bumiputra  areas of the country.     Giant at  Shah Alam Town Center is closing down. 
Petronas (whose clientele are mostly Malays) has shut down in Jalan Bangsar (close to Kg Kerinchi and Pantai Dalam).

These are Malay areas.  This never happened BEFORE the GST.

Post GST, business is just shutting down.

A former President of the Malay Chamber of Commerce told me that they did a survey which showed that the "compounded" effect of the GST is actually about 21% !!

This means people are now paying 21% more for their goods and services than from before the GST.

This means that if you were a minimum wage earner (RM1000 a month, lets ignore EPF, SOCSO etc) and you have to spend all your income then your real purchasing power is only RM790.  RM210 of your salary has gone to pay for Birkin handbags, superyachts and  pornographic movies. 

At least 20% of your purchasing power has been sucked away to pay GST induced price increments. 

This is especially true for monthly wage earners ie people who have only one source of income - their monthly salaries.  

The majority of working Malays and bumiputras fall under this category. 
The vast majority of Malays and bumiputras are not even salaried workers.
They fall under the informal sector category (kerja kampong, niaga warong, niaga kecil etc) . They are even worse off.

What does this mean? This means at the end of every week, end of every month or end of every year there are 20% more unsold stocks in the petrol stations, supermarts and other businesses.   Business has shrunk.

Or (after three years of the GST) the petrol stations, hypermarts, businesses etc will stock up  20% less inventory on their shelves than before the GST.  

Their sales would have shrunk.  That is why you read all those news headlines above. Business is dying.

2017 is coming to an end. It has been a very, very difficult year for all businesses, including mine. In 2017 many businesses have been running on whatever reserves or free cash they had.  All that is finished for many honest businesses.

2018 is going to be the year of "tutup kedai". Just mark my words. If the kleptocracy is not kicked out, there will be a tsunami of business closures in 2018.

We do not have any more spare cash or reserves to help keep our heads above the water.

Plus the gomen is harrassing us. The Customs guys are harassing us about GST, the Income Tax guys are harassing us about our records going back years, the 'Competition Act' guys are harassing us about how we do business, the gomen is just making  the lives of businessmen  more and more difficult. 

So 2018 is going to be the year of  "Tutup Kedai".

Congratulations. Tahniah.

Bila bisnes tutup, tak ada pekerjaan, budak Melayu menganggur dulu.
Tak ada lagi kutipan GST, tak ada lagi bayaran cukai. Kerajaan tak ada duit.

So what will happen?

Melayu miskin dulu.