Monday, November 4, 2024

1984 US ELECTIONS - WALTER MONDALE AND THE PARTY OF DOOM

 

In about 33 hours the 2024 Presidential polls will open on the East Coast of the United States (13 hours behind us). Then another three hours later the polls will open on the West Coast. 

In the 1984 race (40 years ago) incumbent Republican President Ronald Reagan defeated Democrat challenger Walter Mondale the former Vice-President under Jimmy Carter. I was in the US at that time.

Reagan won a landslide victory defeating Mondale in 49 out of 50 States. Mondale also carried the exactly 10 square mile federal territory of Washington DC. Here is an electoral map of that 1984 polls.

 



1984 United States elections - Wikipedia

Republican incumbent President Ronald Reagan won re-election, defeating Democratic former Vice President Walter Mondale. Reagan carried every state except for Washington, D.C., and Mondale's home state of Minnesota; won 58.8 percent of the popular vote; and defeated Mondale by a popular vote margin of eighteen points.

Reagan (Republican) remains the only presidential candidate since Richard Nixon (Republican) in 1972 to win at least 55 percent of the popular vote and win by a margin greater than 10 points.

Mondale selected New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate, making Ferraro the first woman to appear on a major party presidential ticket.

The 1984 United States elections were held on November 6.

My Comments : The US presidential elections are held every four years on the first Tuesday in November (which is tomorrow). So there is no guessing game when the elections will be held. 

Once elected the American president cannot be removed by any means of No Confidence or losing popularity. The president can only be removed at the conclusion of the four year term in office, or by criminal impeachment (if he committed a crime while in office) or if he resigns, or he dies in office.  

Why Donald Trump will be assassinated if he is elected again.

Since 1779, no American president has been successfully removed from office through impeachment. Richard Nixon resigned from office in 1973. In the past 245 years there have been a total of FOUR attempted impeachments against presidents Andrew Johnson in 1868, (Bill) Clinton in 1998 and TWICE against Donald Trump, in 2019 and 2020. None were successful.

In the past 245 years, 50% of the impeachment proceedings against a sitting US president have been against Donald Trump (1919 and 2020).  There are some bad people who really hate him.

In his re-election campaign in 2024, President Trump has already survived TWO assassination attempts. He was wounded by rifle fire in the first attempt and shots were fired in the second attempt. 

If Trump wins the presidential elections tomorrow there will be more assassination attempts against him.  

There was an assassination attempt against Republican president Ronald Reagan in 1982. President Reagan survived being shot in the chest. Reagan was focussed on ending the Cold War between the West and the Soviet Union. Largely because of his efforts the Berlin Wall collapsed in November 1989, just ten months after Reagan's second term ended in January 1989. The end of the Cold War meant huge cuts in military spending and losses for the weapons manufacturers.

In 1973 Republican President Nixon was forced to resign because of the Watergate Scandal. Nixon was strongly committed to ending the Vietnam War. The Vietnam War did end two years later in 1975. Again peace meant huge cuts in military spending and losses for weapons manufacturers.

Donald Trump is strongly anti-war. In his first term as president (2016-2020) the US did not embark on any new wars. Trump ended the ISIS troubles in the Middle East and negotiated peace directly with the Taliban. 

Trump hails Afghanistan deal, plans to meet Taliban leaders soon
By Steve Holland

March 1, 2020

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said he would be personally meeting leaders of the Taliban in the near future.   He spoke hours after U.S. and Taliban representatives signed a deal toward a full withdrawal of foreign soldiers and move closer to ending the 18-year war in Afghanistan.

Donald Trump also became the first American President to meet a North Korean leader (Kim Jong Un) THREE TIMES and also became the first American president to set foot into North Korea (Panmunjom). 


Again peace in Afghanistan and the thaw with North Korea meant huge cuts in military spending and losses for weapons manufacturers. 

Trump has now promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.

If Trump wins they will shoot him again. Or blow him up.

Wah!! Gaji Penjawat Awam naik tinggi gila sampai boleh cuti ke Thailand dengan satu famili naik Business Class!! Atau dia guna duit tabung dia sendiri?


Saya pernah naik Business Class dan First Class tetapi masa saya bertugas dengan majikan saya dulu. Company bayar. Saya suka duduk di Business Class dari KL ke Amerika Syarikat. Memang selesa memandangkan waktu penerbangannya begitu lama sekali (up to 20 hours termasuk transit).

Tambang tiket kapalterbang Business Class dan First Class adalah sangat mahal berbanding tiket Ekonomi.

Contohnya tambang penerbangan Emirates KL to London: 

  • Economy class return tickets start from MYR 2,869
  • Business class return tickets start from MYR 14,589
  • First class return tickets start from MYR 31,219
Business Class LIMA kali lagi mahal berbanding tiket Ekonomi.
First Class pula SEPULUH KALI lebih mahal berbanding Ekonomi.

Kalau beli tiket sendiri saya beli Ekonomi saja. Tak berani bayar Business Class dengan duit sendiri. Mahal sangat. Tetapi make sure tiap 4-6  jam ada transit. Contohnya transit di Taipei, Tokyo, Dubai dsbnya. Saya kurang selesa direct flight 10 jam atau 12 jam ke mana pun. 

Anyway ikut berita berikut ada pula Penjawat Awam boleh holiday dengan famili dia ke Thailand naik Business Class. Boleh tahan juga. Dia kata dia guna duit sendiri. Duit tabung kut. 

Boleh baca di sini (click) 


 

Saturday, November 2, 2024

The future of Malay politics and the shifting dynamics of political alliance - By Tok Nujum

 

I received this from someone (thank you). A brief commentary written by a Tok Nujum. I do not know who is Tok Nujum. I have some comments at the end. I have slightly adapted the piece.

*The future of Malay politics and the shifting dynamics of political alliance.*

*By Tok Nujum*

With gossip within the political circle that Backdoor is trying to cut a deal with PAS in preparation for GE 16, DAP's future looks bleak within the Chinese community and same goes with UMNO amongst the Malay community.

The Chinese community ditched MCA after the HINDRAF rally in 2007, seeing the bold Indian voters taking on the might of the then UMNO BN hegemony. MCA was then seen as beyond repair by the Chinese, just like the Indians saw MIC.

The Chinese electorate backed DAP and by extension PKR and PAS (eventually Amanah) in 2008 in the hope that Backdoor who portrayed himself as the “KING OF REFORM” would really overhaul the country which is sinking into extreme ideas of religious politics. Creeping Islamisation in the lives of non-Muslims, interference in the ju----ary, M--C, and Parliamentary democracy were instances seen as a threat to our democratic institution. Backdoor presented himself as a true Islamic reformist who would uphold Islam as well as ensure the rights of the minorities are protected. This moderate Islam approach was acceptable to most Non-Muslims.

However, Backdoor has since disappointed many who believed in him. "He has lost the plot', many would say. He is not bothered about the need to ensure the country progresses, modernize businesses, and move Malaysia to be a competitive player in the international market. Instead, he is busy visiting his colleagues from the Muslim Brotherhood, portraying himself as a true champion of the Islamic faith, bending backwards to please the religious politicians who he thinks would shift their support towards him. Unfortunately his gestures to please the Islamists are not successful. It simply isn’t happening, and realizing this, he has made bold moves to strike a deal with PAS and, in the process, ditching the man who made him in the first place, Z---d. Z---d ensured the 30 BN MPs backed him and secured the minimum 112 required in the early hours of 20th November 2022. For this Z---d almost faced a revolt within but he did what he did to ensure Malaysia would be ruled by a Unity government that would bring new hope to Malaysia.

In the next GE, Backdoor will most likely be ditching UMNO. He is likely to cut a separate arrangement with DAP. He does not care about Amanah. Backdoor thinks the Chinese and Indians have no choice but to be with him, as should the country have a PAS PM, then the plight of the Chinese and Indians would be worse.

There is a palpable sense of uncertainty among the Chinese and Indian communities. 
The Indians, in particular, have lost faith in Backdoor. 
His attempts to win back support through last minute dramatic gestures and concessions would no longer be effective. The Indians realize his MGR antics was just a con.  
The Chinese, too, are beginning to question the direction of his leadership and its implications for the country.

If DAP insists on being part of Pakatan, with Backdoor entering into an electoral pact with PAS, the Chinese would probably leave DAP and support MCA, which is likely to team up with Bersatu in GE 16.

  • Hence, DAP, Amanah, MAP, and UMNO and other smaller parties would prove to be a potent force to take on other coalitions and political pacts. 
  • The people are more politically mature and look for principled leadership rather than leadership of convenience for the sake of remaining in power.

My Comments : 

DAP is losing support in the Chinese community. The DAP's own 'bedmates' can also see this. No one wants to sleep with a loser. The DAPs increasing unpopularity is within and beyond its control. Beyond its control because the Chinese do not like DAP sleeping with the highly unpopular UMNO. And of course lately the Chinese are none too crazy over PKR either. The DAP can decide to ditch UMNO and Pakatan altogether.  This is within their control. If they want to be practical. Worse case go it alone. Or the DAP can stay in Pakatan and be prepared to lose more seats. If the DAP loses say 10 seats (from 40 down to 30) then the DAP will become insignificant again. I dont think the DAP can win 40 seats.

The Indians - I think if he sings another MGR song, the Indians can be conned again. Or he can sing Vaaluge Tamil Eelam. 

Before I forget, I believe the voters in Lembah Pantai and Tambun are fed up. These two seats will be easy pickings for a strong contender from another party. Never before has an incumbent prime minister lost his parliamentary seat in Malaysia. But there can always be a first time. 

Hello readers, hello DAP ponder this, what if Backdoor loses his parliamentary seat? Have you thought about that?  Or maybe the DAP can recommend another "safe seat"? Sungai Siput has two toll gates Utara and Selatan.

Lembah Pantai (where I vote) is super notorious for throwing its MPs into the tong sampah. Shahrizat served more than one term as our MP. Then under Badawi the Lembah Pantai voters kicked her out. Shahrizat was replaced by Nurul. But for only one term. She was not popular. She would not have won again. And true enough for the next round she did not defend her Lembah Pantai seat. She balik kampong. 

The same vibes are being felt about the incumbent now. There is no guarantee he can win again. There is a strong chance that the voters will vote out the fellow as well. Lembah Pantai is notorious for doing just that.  

But going back to Tok Nujum's comments above, can you notice that something really absolutely huge is missing? What about the people? What about the voters?

'strike a deal with PAS, ditching the man who made him,  likely be ditching UMNO,  cut a separate arrangement with DAP,  being part of Pakatan, leave DAP and support MCA' bla bla bla.

Ok but what about the people? 
What about the voters? 
What about us? 
What do we get?
 

Najib and BN crapped all over the people. We kicked them out.
Dr M 2.0 crapped all over the people. He got kicked out.
Muhyiddin did not do any better. Out he went.
Sabri did not do any better either, He was put in the bin.
Now these jokers are continuing with the same plot. 
They will get booted as well.

The local rice is still missing from the shops and the supermarkets. 
Egg prices have come down. That is because the price control on eggs was removed. 
There is enough chicken in the market. Because the price control on chicken was abolished.

Local rice (beras tempatan) is still a problem.
Car prices are still too expensive.
Banking services are expensive - it is an oligopoly.
Education is a huge problem.
The Ringgit is going down.
The list is much longer. 
What is being done to help the people? 
All the people.
 
RM25 million has been promised to rehab the 400 'madrassah liwat' kids. 
That works out to RM62,500 per child. That is our money.
Another way of saying it 'If they get liwatted the gomen helps them'.
Another way of saying it, 'If you want the gomen to help you, then get . . . ??
Even the Palestinians are being helped.
They were flown here using our money. Banyak cantik.
 
MY SUGGESTION
 
Let me repeat my 100% guaranteed formula for the Pakatan Harapan to win a 2/3 majority in the 16th General Elections in 2027.

My suggestion will give millions of hardworking Malaysians a salary increment of hundreds of Ringgit or thousands of Ringgit WITHOUT having to increase the Minimum Wages. 

It will reduce transportation and logistics costs throughout the country.
Transportation expenses will become cheaper.
Taxi fares and bus fares will become cheaper.
The costs in the construction industry will become cheaper.
Houses will become cheaper.
Manufacturing costs will become cheaper.
Our exports will become cheaper.

construction contributed 3.6% to (GDP) in 2023
manufacturing contributed 23% to (GDP) in 2023

  • All you have to do is abolish the APs to import all types of motorised vehicles.
  • Abolish the entire regime of import duties, taxes, levies, excise or whatever on imported motor vehicles.
  • Replace all that with one standard import tax of 15% only.

This will greatly reduce the insanely expensive motor vehicles prices in the country - both imported and locally manufactured.

In California  the starting price for a 2024 Toyota Camry is RM 115,000  (US$26,420). This is the real price of a Toyota Camry in the world markets.



Business and industry will benefit tremendously. Whatever the gomen loses in import duties will be regained from a much higher economic performance in the economy. When motor vehicles and transportation costs are cheaper the economy will become more active.  Business will move forward. The gomen will collect even more taxes. 

If a Toyota Camry sells for RM115,000 the monthly instalment payments will be much cheaper. Hundreds of Ringgit cheaper. People will have more savings in the pocket. The people will get an automatic salary increment. 

And the prices of all motor vehicles will come down.

Plus the PH will win a 2/3 majority in Parliament.

DAP, PKR, UMNO can all sleep together. No need to break up. ditch your coalition partners etc.

All you need to do is to do something for the people. 
So far you have done nothing much for the people.  

The Malays have little stake in the real economy. The Malay economy is still government procurement, bumiputra quotas, GLC jobs, licenses, permits, Ali Baba, gomen handouts. It is going to be extremely difficult for any one Malay party (PKR, Umno, Bersatu, Pas, Amanah) to create new wealth among the Malays by giving them handouts.   Because you are not creating new wealth. You are merely redistributing (AGIH = a four letter word) tax collections from other hard working taxpayers. For example if you AGIH RM100 million to Tan Sri XY, then that is RM100 million less to be AGIH for ALL the other Malays combined.  Tax collections are a limited resource. On the other hand new wealth creation is unlimited.

And do remember this:

Najib and BN crapped all over the people. We kicked them out.
Dr M 2.0 crapped all over the people. He got kicked out.
Muhyiddin did not do any better. Out he went.
Sabri did not do any better either. He was put in the bin.
Now these PH jokers are continuing with the same plot. 
They will get booted as well. 

MUST READ, MESTI BACA : CHINA'S NEXT GREAT LEAP FORWARD

"define China’s economic trajectory for years to come"
 

(Oct 29): China approving US$1.4 trillion or RM6.1 trillion economic stimulus
fiscal package expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins
top legislative body, Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC)
to approve fresh fiscal package, meeting on Nov 4-8 (US elections on 5th Nov).

OSTB : Our entire GDP is about RM1.5 trillion. So the Chinese fiscal stimulus of RM6.1 trillion is FOUR TIMES the size of the Malaysian GDP. That is a lot of spending. 

Why is China spending so much on fiscal stimulus? Here is the reason:

  • China's Next 'Great Leap Forward'
  • Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee and State Council, Beijing
  • new directive to develop an advanced industrial workforce aimed at driving Chinese-style modernization.


OSTB :  Chinese industry is already super modern and far advanced than industry in Germany, Japan or the United States. For example Chinese Electric Vehicle manufacturing (EVs) are so advanced that they are shutting down EV industries in Europe, Japan and in the US. Yet the Chinese are spending big to make their super modern industries even more advanced.

In today’s China, self-reliance has reemerged as a slogan
broader goals of economic, industrial security amid “hostile” global environment

OSTB : Most certainly a Trump presidency will see tariffs against imports particularly imports from China. Short term benefits for the US but long term disaster. China wants to develop local demand and local technology to circumvent US tariffs.

The central government wants to boost internal production and limit vulnerabilities while still engaging in foreign trade – but on terms that reduce its exposure to Western pressures. Facing restrictions to its access to the latest technologies by U.S.-led alliances, Beijing sees self-sufficiency as essential to sustaining and expanding its influence in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. 

OSTB : If Chinese EVs keep getting cheaper, if they can go say 1000 km on one charge they will break through AND breakdown tariff barriers. American consumers will not agree to pay higher prices (because of higher tariffs) for lower quality Electric Vehicles. (Only the "tak reti kira, tak faham apa pun" Malaysian consumer is willing to do that). This is where some of that US$1.4 Trillion fiscal stimulus will also be spent - to create the next gen EV cars.

  • increase training, support for workers to improve quality, quantity of production 
  • support for career development, labor rights, skill development, job security
  • to make manufacturing jobs more attractive
  • boosting industrial production, especially high-tech innovation 
  • essential for economic recovery and modernization
  • Chinese committed to self-sufficiency, innovation, self-reliance
  • self-reliance has reemerged as a slogan
  • broader goals of economic and industrial security 
  • boost internal production and limit vulnerabilities 
  • reduce exposure to Western pressures
  • to engage with foreign markets from secure, competitive stance 
  • improved economic ties with the West
  • define China’s economic trajectory for years to come.

OSTB : Wars will not start if China develops a 1000 km on one charge EV costing less than US10,000. 

Wars will start if the West tries to cut off China's access to commodities and raw materials. The US cut off Japan's access to petroleum and other raw materials. So on December 7th 1941 the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour.

For 70 years from 1945 until 2015 the US wiped out any Arab or Persian regime which threatened its access to Middle East oil. 

The US and the West are provoking China into a conflict not as an excuse for them to invade Chinese territory. US troops will never be able to wade ashore in China. But to use conflict as an excuse to cut off China's access to raw materials and commodities from around the globe. A total trade embargo. This is why China is building all those aircraft carriers in such a hurry.

And China is already taking the offensive. This is already war. The Chinese strategy is to outpace, out-tech, out-develop, out-manufacture, out-produce the rest of the world combined. If you dont drive a super-duper, super cheap Chinese EV, then you walk to work.  (Why would you want to do that? Are you a Malaysian?)

The Chinese have done this already. 
Have you shopped online lately? 
Or been to the supermarket? 

Friday, November 1, 2024

Wanita "donate gold" ? Israel sudah lama tutup sempadan Gaza, Bank semua sudah hancur, duit derma tak boleh masuk. Puan-Puan Elok Teliti Dulu.

 

"saya amat kurang yakin bagaimana caranya segala duit derma untuk Filistin, derma emas untuk Filistin boleh sampai pun ke tangan penduduk di Gaza?"

 


 

  • launched 'Gold for Palestine' project 
  • aimed specifically at women in the state 
  • to raise funds for Palestine
  • project was testament of concern
  • launched specifically for women
  • Women donating jewellery, rings, pendants, bracelets, gold chains

 

My Comments :



  • Sejak 7hb Oktober tahun sudah (2023) bank di Gaza sudah tutup. 
  • Tidak ada wang tunai yang baru boleh masuk ke Gaza 
  • (No new cash in circulation)
  • ATM yang masih beroperasi potong "komisyen" 17% setiap kali cucuk duit. 
  • Maksudnya kalau orang Gaza mahu keluarkan 100 riyal, ATM itu akan potong 17 riyal sebagai komisyen. Yang mereka akan dapat hanya 83 riyal. 

Sila dengar YouTube yang singkat ini (kurang tiga minit) untuk fahami keadaan di Gaza.

 


Jadi saya amat kurang yakin bagaimana caranya segala duit derma untuk Filistin, derma emas untuk Filistin boleh sampai pun ke tangan penduduk di Gaza?

Takkan nak bawa wang tunai dan ketul emas dalam kampit beras? Sempadan Gaza sudah tutup sejak setahun dulu.

Sempadan Gaza sudah tutup, bank sudah tutup (kalau belum hancur).  

Di YouTube pula ramai scammer buat video kutip derma atas pelbagai alasan. 

Ada juga manusia jenis lain yang langsung tiada hati perut yang sanggup menunjuk gambar  bayi dalam saat-saat ketika kematiannya sebab tidak minum susu. Semuanya alasan untuk mengutip duit derma.


ketika kematiannya?  Sila perhatikan botol susu yang penuh susu di sebelah kanan gambar. Bayi ini masih hidup dan sihat wal afiat (perhatikan genggaman tangannya). Dia sedang tidur lena.

Elok teliti dulu sebelum mahu derma duit, derma emas dsbnya. Suruh mereka jelaskan dengan detail bagaimana duit dan emas derma itu akan sampai ke tangan penduduk Gaza? Terutama sekali sebab sejak lebih setahun semua bank Gaza tutup, semua bank telah hancur dan sempadan Gaza sudah ditutup.

USD AT RM4.37. SINGAPORE SAYS RM WILL WEAKEN THEN STRENGTHEN



  • Ringgit on course for its worst month in more than nine years 
  • investors scale back amid concerns over the US election.
  • ringgit down more than 6% against US dollar in October
  • biggest monthly loss since August 2015
  • ringgit traded at 4.39 per dollar on Oct 30.
  • ringgit weakened 3% against Sing Dollar 
  • RM3.2993 per Singdollar on Oct 30.
  • run-up to the November 5th US election.
  • ringgit 14% appreciation against US dollar last quarter
  • ringgit sensitivity to yuan and yen
  • OCBC, MUFG Bank predict Ringgit will strengthen if Kamala wins
  • reduce the risks of tariffs that could hurt economies across Asia.
  • MUFG forecasts Ringgit at 4.12 per US dollar by year-end
  • while OCBC sees it gaining to 4.22. BLOOMBERG

 

My Comments : Bottom line is if Alamak Harris wins on Nov 5th (four more days left) the Ringgit may strengthen. If Donald Trump wins then the Ringgit (and a bunch of other currencies) may weaken.  The reasoning being Trump is into tariffs which will impact exporting nations like Malaysia, China etc.

Can Kamala win? In 2016 Donald Trump defeated Senator Hillary Clinton who was (and still is) a far more capable and experienced politician. Just before the 2016 polls a fellow from the US Embassy here said 'I dont think America is ready for a female president'. Hillary was white, she had been the First Lady for two terms yet she lost. Kamala Harris is wannabe 'black', not very experienced and yes she cackles.

Early voting has begun and the polls show Donald Trump leading. There may be the possibility of a landslide for Trump but we will have to wait and see.

So yes the Ringgit may weaken some more if Trump wins.

At the end of the day, the Ringgit just follows wherever the US Dollar wants it to go. 

When the US cut their interest rates (by 0.5% on 20th Sept 2024), the  US Dollar fell and the Ringgit shot up. That was the Ringgit's 14% appreciation against the USD.

Now the USD vs Ringgit is down again, to around RM4.37 / 4.38. If Trump wins on 5th November the Ringgit could go south again. 

  • Folks despite their interest rate cut, the US Dollar is still mighty. 
  • They seem to set the pace. 
  • The Ringgit just follows.

Thursday, October 31, 2024

THE FATE OF THE MIDDLE EAST CHANGED WHEN OBAMA SIGNED OFF ON SHALE OIL

 

What is happening in the Middle East now is a direct consequence of what President Obama did circa 2012 and 2015.

In 2012 Obama lifted the ban on shale gas drilling in the US. This immediately set the US on course for oil and gas self sufficiency. 

Obama backs shale gas drilling. January 25, 2012.  WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Barack Obama on Tuesday pledged support for the U.S. shale gas boom. 

In no time the USA became more than self sufficient in oil and gas. US oil producers then pressured Obama to lift the ban on America exporting oil. This too happened in 2015.

On December 18, 2015, President Obama signed legislation into law that repeals the 40-year-old U.S. ban on crude oil exports. 

From then until today the US became the world's largest oil exporter, ahead of Saudi Arabia or Venezuela. With just a couple of strokes of Obama's signing pen. It also meant that the Middle East, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Palestine issue, the Jewish lobby in Washington all became less urgent for the United States. 

The Arab Spring did not really affect the US. Obama took a more flexible stance towards the ayatollahs in Iran. Obama began withdrawing from Iraq in 2011. They also began to wind down in Afghanistan.

The Arab Spring had weakened so many Arab regimes. Egypt was in turmoil. 

By 2013 the Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown in Egypt and General Fatah Sisi became the next president for life. By this time the Arab Spring began to collapse and became the Arab Hell. The Muslim Brotherhood in Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Syria, Libya, Sudan began to lose their perch. In 2011 the Muslim Brotherhood-controlled Sudan had broken into two. 13 years later in 2024 they are still fighting in "north" Sudan. In 2014 the world oil prices crashed.

Through all this turmoil the only Middle East regime that appeared unscathed was Iran. The ayatollahs helped defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria. They controlled Lebanon through their proxy Hezbollah. The ayatollahs were promoting violence through their proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Islamic Jihad, Jabhat Nusra and other militants. 

Then in 2018 President Trump  said point blank that without the US security umbrella, Saudi Arabia would not last two weeks. The Arabs saw the red lights flashing.

Enter the Abrahamic Accords in 2020. The Arabs would switch from the US security umbrella to the Israeli security umbrella. The Abrahamic Accords are a simple treaty of peace and friendship. The great significance is that it is a 'general' treaty between the Arabs and the Jews.  The Arabs recognise Israel. Bahrain, Morocco, UAE and Sudan have already signed up. Considering that Egypt (1978)  and Jordan (1994) have separate peace treaties with Israel the Abrahamic Accords now have SIX Arab countries on board. 

Post-2020, Saudi Arabia was on the brink of normalising relations with Israel. The ayatollahs in Iran were really getting uneasy. On September 16, 2022 the Mahsa Amini protests began in Iran which really rattled the ayatollahs. The protests extended into early 2023 and have not fully died down. 

On October 7th 2023 the Ayatollahs ordered Hamas to launch  their attack into Israel. It was a suicidal mission - no doubts about that. The Ayatollahs were and still are desperate. Their objective was to torpedo the Abrahamic Accords. Indeed the Abrahamic Accords have been postponed but they are perhaps more urgently needed now by the Arabs, especially Saudi Arabia than ever before.   The Ayatollahs must have paid hundreds of millions of US Dollars to the Muslim Brotherhood and to Hamas to launch the attack.   For Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood there was no strategic objective that could be achieved other than to commit suicide.  Only the receipt of large sums of money could have paid for the suicide.

True enough Hamas has been destroyed. Ismail Haniyeh and his successor Yahya Sinwar are both dead. It is another defeat for the Muslim Brotherhood. The Hezbollah in Lebanon is also being destroyed.  Their leader Hassan Nasrallah is dead. The Houthi proxies in Yemen are taking a beating.

The ayatollahs fired over 500 missiles directly into Israel - to no use. They killed a single Arab in the West Bank.  

The Israelis have counter attacked and caused significant damage to the ayatollahs. The Israelis even struck a further 200 km east of Teheran to hit another rocket factory in a place called Semnan. The entire Iran has become a free-fly zone for the Israeli airforce.


 

What exactly have the ayatollah's achieved? They should have stuck to their 'hobson yobsons'. The religious people should be locked up inside their madrassas. They will cause less harm to others.


Persaksian secara "hearsay" tidak diterima mahkamah sivil


Antara sebab utama sistem pengadilan secara pendakwaan di mahkamah sivil sangat berjaya dan berguna untuk menyelesaikan pelbagai permasalahan manusia adalah sistem mengemukakan bukti atau evidence yang boleh diterima mahkamah sivil.  

Pihak pendakwa dan pembela mesti menunjukkan bukti mereka masing-masing untuk menyokong hujah mereka.  Menurut ayat al Quran yang terkenal : 

قل هاتو برهانكم إن كنتم صادقين

(Qul haatu burhanukum inkuntum sadikin)   maksudnya 'Katakanlah, datangkanlah bukti-bukti kamu, jika kamu orang yang benar!'

Kita mesti tunjuk bukti yang benar yang boleh diterima mahkamah sivil. Dan mahkamah sivil akan terima persaksian mata (eye witness atau "saksi mata" dalam bahasa Indonesia) serta bukti forensic dan tangible evidence sebagai bukti. Forensic evidence dan tangible evidence termasuk kesan DNA, cap jari (fingerprints), senjata atau weapon yang digunakan oleh tertuduh, dokumen rasmi (penyata bank dsbnya).

Ikut bahasa mahkamah, semua ini akan termasuk 'cogent evidence'. Pencarian online 'cogent evidence' menghasilkan yang berikut:

  • Cogent evidence is evidence that is more convincing and carries greater weight than a preponderance of evidence. It is evidence that shows that something is highly probable to have occurred.  
  • In a fraud case, the burden of proof is clear, cogent, and convincing evidence.

preponderance of evidence  merujuk bukti yang banyak atau bilangannya yang banyak.  Tetapi kualiti dan mutu sesuatu persaksian / bukti yang kukuh akan lebih meyakinkan dan mengesahkan berbanding dengan bilangan atau banyaknya persaksian yang lain (preponderance of evidence).  Kebenaran sesuatu persaksian sebagai bukti itu tidak terikat kepada bilangan ramai orang yang telah saksikannya. Persaksian yang ramai tidak semestinya bermaksud bukti itu harus diterima. 

Untuk fahami perkara ini satu lagi ayat Quran adalah sangat relevan:

Surah 6:116   وَإِن تُطِعْ أَكْثَرَ مَن فِى ٱلْأَرْضِ يُضِلُّوكَ عَن سَبِيلِ ٱللَّهِ إِن يَتَّبِعُونَ إِلَّا ٱلظَّنَّ وَإِنْ هُمْ إِلَّا يَخْرُصُونَ  

maksudnya : "Dan jika engkau menurut kebanyakan orang yang ada di muka bumi, nescaya mereka akan menyesatkanmu dari jalan Allah; tiadalah yang mereka turut melainkan sangkaan semata-mata, dan mereka tidak lain hanyalah berdusta"

Jadi tiada jaminan bahawa bilangan yang ramai atau puak yang ramai atau golongan yang majoriti itu adalah benar. 

Dan mahkamah juga akan membezakan antara hearsay testimony dan first person witness.

Mahkamah hanya akan menerima persaksian first person witness. Maksudnya "A first person witness is anyone who recounts events from their perspective as a witness or participant".  Saksi itu telah melihat sesuatu perkara itu berlaku dengan mata kepalanya sendiri, dan mendengar secara langsung dengan telinganya sendiri atau adalah pelaku dan peserta dalam peristiwa itu. Maka persaksiannya boleh diterima oleh mahkamah sivil.  

Sebarang saksi selain daripada 'first person witness' ini tidak akan diterima oleh mahkamah sivil. Selain daripada 'first person witness' ini akan digelar sebagai hearsay evidence atau hearsay testimony. Hearsay maksudnya khabar angin, omong kosong atau berita yang tidak boleh disahkan kebenarannya.

Hearsay itu ibarat mata rantai menyambungkan antara tukang-tukang cerita yang menceritakan sesuatu peristiwa, daripada pencerita terawal sehingga pencerita terakhir dalam rantai itu.

 

Contohnya rangkaian seperti :  "Ali telah dengar daripada Sufyan, yang telah dengar daripada Zaid yang telah dengar daripada Harith, yang telah dengar daripada Abu Salamah, bahawa ..."  tidak akan diterima sebagai persaksian yang sah atau bukti yang kukuh (cogent evidence) oleh mahkamah sivil. Mahkamah sivil akan menolak persaksian seperti ini sebab ia adalah 'hearsay' atau khabar angin.

Untuk makluman sahaja.

 

Debating In Islamic Heritage (2)