OKU

OKU = Orang Kurang Upaya

Not Hit The Bottom Yet

By AP Business Writer

(Truncated news)

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) posts record loss, unveils restructuring plan

Royal Bank of Scotland posts huge loss for 2008, unveils restructuring program

LONDON (AP) -- The Royal Bank of Scotland posted an annual loss of 24.14 billion pounds (USD$34.4 billion) -- the biggest in British corporate history -- and unveiled a massive restructuring plan on Thursday that will offload its international businesses.

RBS Chairman Philip Hampton blamed the massive 2008 loss, which compared with a 7.3 billion pound profit in 2007, on the "unprecedented turbulence" in financial markets and deteriorating conditions around the world.

Reports of the bank shedding 20,000 positions, or 10 percent of its work force, were "not unreasonable."

RBS' downfall in the wake of the global credit squeeze has been swift.As recently as July 2008, The Banker magazine rated it as one of the world's top banks based on its tier 1 capital.

Goodwin and former chairman Tom McKillop both issued a public apology for their roles in the bank's downfall after resigning, but controversy over their huge salaries continued to rage on Thursday with revelations that Goodwin, 50, is receiving a 650,000 pound a year pension.

The Treasury had urged Goodwin to give up his 16 million pound pension pot, but had not yet received a reply.

McKillop earlier this month acknowledged that RBS' decision to buy Dutch bank ABN Amro in December 2007 -- when its investment banking business was heavily exposed to the complex financial instruments hit by the crisis -- was a "bad mistake."

Moral of Short Story: Speed kills. So does greed.

What Could (Or Should) Najib Do ?

By Syed Akbar Ali

Since the transition from the 5^th to the 6^th Prime Minister is getting closer, lets start making suggestions for the benefit of the new Prime Minister. Of course one man’s suggestion could be just time wasted to another man but lets make an attempt anyway. Perhaps we can try to be relevant.

From my post about ‘Farewells For Outgoing Prime Minister’, the comment by Mr Bojangles’ sounds like a hammer loudly hitting a nail.

Mr Bojangles said...Inane, clueless, frivolous, puerile. Right to the glorious end. Ego blissfully levitating at meaningless plaudits showered on such Bushiete asininity by well-paid mercenaries sticking ever so faithfully to the script. Only thing missing on the eve of the grand exit is the award of the golden footwear.

Somehow this view expressed in such passionate terms seems to be the norm nowadays when folks discuss the Government and the ruling party. The general perception is that with the exception of some, the Government (meaning the ruling party) is hell bent on making life difficult for most people.

This could be either by design or ineptitude. I feel that the latter is more prevalent. And it is not an intentional ineptitude and neither is there any real malice intended. It is just a ‘tidak apa’ attitude.

I recall many years ago, when the Media started hitting hard almost on a daily basis against the infamous pink coloured Mini Buses in Kuala Lumpur. Until today few people know who were the owners of those Mini Buses (mostly politically connected folks). We only knew the Mini Buses as frequently driven by deranged types who may now have graduated to driving some of the Express Buses that keep running off the roads. If there were not enough traffic lanes the Mini Buses would get up on the kaki lima or sidewalk.

I recall watching a TV crew interviewing a Mini Bus driver about the door to his Mini Bus which would not close, thus posing a threat to his passengers. The driver’s reply was simply ‘Habis pintu dah rosak, nak tutup macam mana?’

This is a completely ‘I don’t care’ attitude. Of course the Mini Bus did not belong to him, obviously he was not connected enough. And there was no enforcement of the traffic rules because the connected Mini Bus owners did not bother to pay up their summonses.

I don’t think any malice was intended – it is just a bad attitude. The other example I want to mention is about a monkey that sat up on a tree by a stream. The monkey saw a fish stuck among some reeds in the water. Being a nice animal with a kind heart, the monkey decided to help the fish. He went down to the water, grabbed the fish, took it back up the tree and put the fish down beside him on a branch. The monkey thought he was doing the fish a great big favour, even when the fish stopped moving.

Unfortunately these attitudes seem to have filtered up to (or maybe it filtered down from) the Government. A few days ago I wrote about roads being closed around Kuala Lumpur during peak hours, to host bicycle races or because Azalina Othman our Tourism Minister wanted to practice making ‘teh tarik’ down on the street. The fact that such actions cause massive traffic jams, inconvenience the public or cause losses to businesses is not a point for their consideration at all.

I received a comment from a reader who was obviously a supporter of Azalina Othman which I chose not to post. It was just a rude and useless comment from one of Azalina’s staunch supporters which completely ignored all the inconvenience suffered by the public. It was another case of ‘Habis pintu dah rosak, nak tutup macam mana?’

In this case it would have been ‘Habis Azalina nak buat teh tarik, nak buka jalan macam mana?’ A totally ‘I don’t care’ attitude.

In this country, most people of all races, have a culture of not complaining. The public just suffers in silence. But when it comes to the elections, the public is venting its real feelings (well since 2008). We have seen this in March last year, in Permatang Pauh and the latest in Kuala Terengganu. Three more By Elections are on the way and possibly even a fourth.

This ‘I don’t care attitude’ must change if the ruling party wants to turn things around. The party and the Government must really show that they care for the people. Slogans, newspaper pictures and tv appearances are not going to do this job anymore.

This is where Dato Najib has a major window of opportunity open to him to make changes. He must be bold and seize the moment. The UMNO party and the BN in general are very weak. People don’t support them as they used to anymore. This presents great opportunities for Najib to turn things around.

In the past, party leaders could not afford to ignore the Ketua Bahagian and the party warlords in UMNO. If you crossed them, they could cause havoc come election time. Bilik Gerakan could be shut down, party apparatus could be sabotaged and all sorts of things could happen. When Anwar was booted out, many UMNO Bilik Gerakan in Permatang Pauh shut down during the subsequent 1999 General Elections. Some party members also took to campaigning for Wan Azizah. I believe the same thing happened in the recent Kuala Terengganu by election.

But the situation has changed now. Now no matter who are the Ketua Bahagian or what the party warlords can do, the MALAY voters do not care. They have moved over to the Opposition. They are fed up with the Government, they are fed up with UMNO, they are fed up with the corruption and they are fed up with all the politicking and the bickering and the high handedness of the Government. If the Government and the ruling party are still blinded to this simple truth, then of course they are doomed.

The people really want to see changes in the ruling party, in the Government and in the way things are run. The Government must not make life difficult for the people. Provide leadership, failing which remove obstacles failing which get out of the way.

This is where Najib can choose to actually ignore the party power structure, especially at the Bahagian level and still not lose much. This is a rare opportunity. When the party is so weak, the president yields considerable power at the expense of the Ketua Bahagian and the party warlords. The president can afford to listen directly to what the people and the voters want instead of being influenced by the party power brokers.

This is a rare opportunity indeed. It may not come around again.

To close this here is another comment from aiyomanaboleh who said. .

“Shelf life expired. People are dumping these products for newer, fresher and more innovative products from a competitor.”

Response from one user : "Since I took up the challenge of trying this new product from this new manufacturer, I don't think I can go back to the old one I was using previously. The old manufacturer stuff is out dated, after sales service is lousy, no return policy and you know what, I even got a scolding from them and they threaten to take me to court when I told them they need to improve if they want me to continue using them."

The ruling powers cannot ignore this anymore.

Apocalypto ?

World markets fall amid relentless financial fears
Tuesday February 24
From AP Business Writer

HONG KONG (AP) -- Asian stock markets tumbled Tuesday, with Hong Kong and South Korea down around 3 percent, after relentless fears about the financial system and world economy drove Wall Street to its worst finish in nearly 12 years. European shares opened lower.

Tokyo's benchmark languished near a 26-year low as news that Nomura Holdings, Japan's biggest broker, will raise billions more in capital by selling shares added to worries about the financial sector.

European stocks fell in early trade, with Britain's FTSE 100 down 1.1 percent, Germany's DAX lower 2.4 percent and France's CAC 40 off 1.8 percent. Stock futures suggested Wall Street would rise modestly Tuesday. Dow futures were up 33, or 0.5 percent, at 7,149 and S&P500 futures rose 3.6, or 0.5 percent, at 748.30.

Earlier in Japan, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average lost 107.60 points, or 1.5 percent, to 7,268.56, though selling eased somewhat as the government signaled it may prop up stock prices, possibly by buying shares with public funds. Nomura dived 9.3 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng sank 376.58, or 2.9 percent, to 12,798.52, while South Korea's Kospi fell 3.2 percent to 1,063.88.

Mainland Chinese shares, among the year's best performers, got slammed, and the Shanghai benchmark plunged 4.6 percent.

Elsewhere, Australia's stock measure was off 0.6 percent, and Singapore's benchmark lost 1 percent.

Struggling insurer American International Group Inc. said it's evaluating "potential new alternatives" to tackle its financial problems amid reports it will soon announce a $60 billion loss and ask the government for more aid.

The Dow plunged 250.89, or 3.4 percent, to 7,114.78. It last closed this low on May 7, 1997 when it finished at 7,085.65. The Dow hasn't traded below the 7,000 mark since October 1997.

In currencies, the dollar strengthened to 95.45 yen from 94.43 yen. The euro was up slightly at $1.2790 from $1.2705.

Farewells For Outgoing Prime Minister

By Syed Akbar Ali

There was a dinner last night for outgoing Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi organised by the Kuala Lumpur Business Club. The Star dubbed it as “Milestones: An Evening with The Prime Minister”. Lorraine Hahn (of CNN fame and ex Miss Vancouver Chinatown) was brought in as the “Moderator”.

At the dinner when asked whether he would follow former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s footsteps and blog after he steps down, Abdullah said: “I’m not going to blog. But I would love to play more golf and plant vegetables as well as grow fruit trees.”

Well the Prime Minister has certainly been an advocate of menanam sayur. It looks like he will have a chance to implement his idea after all.

Dr Mahathir not only Blogs but he is also Advisor to Petronas and has the Perdana Leadership Institute in Putrajaya which is very active in organizing seminars, speeches and other intellectual events. The Perdana Leadership Institute is supposed to house offices for ex Prime Ministers. I wonder if Dr Mahathir has space for Abdullah Badawi.

Anyway this is not the first farewell for Abdullah. Earlier when opening Parliament on 16^th February 09, His Royal Highness the YDP Agong Tuanku Mizan already thanked Abdullah for his services as Prime Minister and wished him well. The papers reported the following:

Tuanku Mizan expressed his appreciation to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who will be handing over the reins to his deputy, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak next month.

"I hope the leadership transition will be smooth to enable the country's development agenda to continue unhindered," he said.

Then in Parliament yesterday, a Backbencher’s suggestion for Abdullah to be seated among the senior ministers after the handing over of power at the end of March, sparked a flurry among the Opposition.

It appears that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim gestured towards the seat beside him to accommodate Abdullah the YB from Kepala Batas.

The UMNO nomination process has also formally closed. Since there are no other contestants for the party presidency, it is confirmed now that Dato Seri Najib Tun Razak is president-elect of UMNO. The Party assembly will just be a formality to confirm him.

So congratulations to Dato Najib for securing the party Presidency.

It is also a formality that Tan Sri Muhyuddin Yassin will be elected the deputy president of UMNO. The deputy president also becomes the Deputy Prime Minister.

I just had lunch with an ex Minister’s aide who said that Dato Najib may be assuming the Prime Ministership on April 1^st 2009. The Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang by elections will be held six days later on April 7^th.

It is believed that Dato Najib will be making major announcements as soon as he takes over the leadership.

In a recent interview Tan Sri Muhyuddin has said quite bluntly that

“The Cabinet is the more important part. It will be key to his (Najib’s) success as Prime Minister. It must comprise the capable and committed. It cannot be a carry-over from the past or a recycled team. He is very conscious of expectations of his premiership and the challenging time ahead.”

This means that between April 1^st and 6^th, Dato Najib should be making known his choices for the Cabinet. As Muhyuddin says, most certainly ”it cannot be a carry-over from the past or a recycled team”.

The party members, the Ketua Bahagian warlords and the vested interests may say something else but on the ground, people really want to see major changes in Cabinet and in the leadership. This is actually a polite way of saying that people DON’T WANT to see many of the existing faces in Cabinet.

It remains to be seen whose views will prevail with Najib. It may well determine the outcome of the two by elections and much more than that.

Tan Sri Muhyuddin said that UMNO must acknowledge that it is not as popular as in the past.

‘We got too comfortable, took things for granted, became too self-serving. We have gone somewhat off track and we have to get our bearings again’ he added.

Muhyuddin also said: “We are suffering from a perception problem that is compounded by the new media. There will have to be a major overhaul when Najib comes to power. . . I am even thinking of a Barisan Nasional Baru. How can we present ourselves to Malaysians as a coalition that cares for all races and is for equality and justice? How can we rebrand the Barisan?”

The new media referred to here are the Blogs. The Blogs are becoming increasingly influential because they allow people (Bloggers as well commentors) to actively participate in discussing the country.

If these concerns can be properly addressed by Dato Najib between 1^st and 6^th April, then the BN has a chance in Bukit Selambau and/or Bukit Gantang.

Dato Seri Najib was the BN’s director of the last two by elections in Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu.

Bananas, Gold & The Weimar Republic

By Syed Akbar Ali

Is there another economic tsunami looming just over the horizon? Mr Barack Obama is exhibiting good leadership and a steadying hand on the US and perhaps also on the world economy. But maybe, just maybe the portents are just too cataclysmic and will overwhelm even the straight and true Obama.

I was watching Jay Leno last nite. Thus far Jay Leno and the other talk show hosts (I think) have been unable to take pot shots at Obama. They are focusing on Joe Biden instead. But now they are slowly beginning to make cracks about Obama’s stimulus package. Will it work? Is it enough? Is it too late?

Obama appears to be saying all the right things. He is already planning for his second term. Two days ago he has pledged to reduce the US Federal Deficit of about USD1.3 Trillion (inherited from Bush) down to about USD550.0 billion before the end of his first term in office.

Just how is he planning to do that, considering that Obama’s stimulus package will need over USD2.0 Trillion of spending, most of it using borrowed funds too. He has suggested removing tax breaks for the rich, spending money wisely and other such things.

But more importantly, by promising to halve the Federal deficit, Obama is instilling confidence in the US Government, the US economy and the US Dollar. The US Dollar actually has little inherent value left. It has value now because the whole world still believes that tomorrow the country known as the United States of America will still be there : functioning, producing and consuming. This confidence gives value to the US Dollar.

In the meantime here are some statistics : the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading at 13930 points in October ’08. Today Feb 23, ’09 the Dow is at 7365 points. Down by 47%. And it is still going down.

The price of oil has gone down to below USD35.00 per barrel, just one quarter the price from a high of USD147 per barrel last year.

The prices of almost all commodities and also steel has plummeted. Steel has gone down from over RM3,500 per tonne down to about RM1,800 per tonne.

The only economic indicator, store of real value and real store of value, bucking this trend is GOLD (I am using uppercase out of respect for GOLD).

A month ago, the metal was trading here in Malaysia at RM3590 per tahil (37.8 grams). Today the price has jumped to RM4470 per tahil. That is a 20% jump in just a month. While everything else is dropping, Gold is going up. Apa pasal?

The price of Gold spiked many months before the last Gulf War (2003). The Wall Street boys seem to know when disasters are looming. Is there more disaster looming?

Gold has little intrinsic use other than making women look pretty or making conducting electric currents in microchips. But it is a fantastic store of value and wealth. Women who buy gold don’t just look good, they are smart investors too.

And in times of uncertainty and doom, people change their paper currencies into gold.

I am in the midst of reading a series of books about the Communist Party of Malaya, the Malayan Emergency, the Japanese Occupation of Malaya, Ho Chi Minh, the Comintern and British skullduggery in South East Asia from 1930 onwards. Really exciting stuff – for busybodies like me.

Throughout this time of war, gold was the currency of choice. The British airdropped gold to their Force 136, Kuomintang and later Communist forces in the jungles in our country to help them finance their activities. The gold was sold to the Japanese in exchange for money and supplies !

Money like most things can lose its value. When money loses its value, there is price inflation too. Soon after the Japanese occupation of Malaya, production of rubber and tin (our two main economic products) almost ground to a complete standstill. There were no more exports of our products because the whole world was at war.

But all the paper currency that was in existence in the country at that time was still floating around. People kept money in banks, under pillows, in piggy banks etc. But all this money had no goods to buy. Whenever there were goods to be bought (like rice smuggled in from Burma or Thailand through Lumut) middle men would rush to buy it. This was the black market. They would pay high prices and then sell the smuggled rice to people at even higher prices. Since there was much paper currency, but little goods, prices of the few goods just shot up.

It became worse when the Japanese printed their banana currency. By all logic, the same thing should happen in the US (but it is not – or not yet).

The GDP of the US was over USD14.0 Trillion in 2008. This is the sum total of all the useful goods and services produced in the US. This means if you take all the McDonald’s Big Macs, all the Coca Cola, all the General Motors cars and trucks, the Boeing 747s etc produced in the US in 2008 and put them all inside a huge warehouse and put price tags on all of them, it should tally up to USD14.0 Trillion. This is very good.

To buy and sell these USD14.0 Trillion worth of goods and services, the US economy could sustain at least USD14.0 Trillion worth of US Dollar currency notes in circulation. Meaning USD14. Trillion worth of their US Dollars were therefore backed by solid assets – cars, trucks, Ford, GM, Boeing, Coca Cola, Big Macs etc. That was the real economy.

Then you have the not so good things in the US – the financial derivatives products, the fake stuff, which has now crashed and is creating havoc around the world. It is said that the financial derivatives trade is about 19 times the physical US economy. USD14.0 Trillion X 19 = USD266.0 Trillion.

This means they had another 19 warehouses full of now almost worthless paper which they called financial derivatives products.

The BIS (Bank for Int’l Settlements in Basle, Switzerland – I like to call it the Bullshit Bank) estimates that in 2003, the world trade in financial derivatives was already USD873 Trillion !

Now here is the scary part. This USD266 Trillion American trade in derivatives (financial products based on hot air and little else) was also denominated in US Dollars. They had to buy and sell their financial derivatives in US Dollars too.

Now the US derivatives market is almost dead. Hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivatives has just disappeared. But all the trillions of US Dollars in paper currency notes that was used to buy and sell these derivatives are still around. Definitely they are not all in actual paper currency. Much of the US Dollars are just accounting entries, bank account figures or “electronic funds”. Nevertheless that amount of US currency is still around, floating in the system somewhere.

By all logic, this should bring the US to the banana money situation during the Japanese occupation here in 1941. Too many currency notes chasing too few goods and services. It should cause hyperinflation in the US.

Jacques Attali, the former first President of the EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) said just last week that the Western world is now headed for a Weimar Republic situation.

The Weimar Republic was actually Germany after the First World War which suffered massive hyperinflation and low industrial production. The only thing of value during Weimar was again Gold. The situation did not turn around until Hitler came to power in 1926 and put an end to the Weimar Republic (and declared the Third Reich).

By the same logic the US Dollar should also fall in value. But that is not happening (yet). On the contrary the US Dollar is strengthening. I think the main reason the US Dollar is strengthening is because the whole world has firm confidence that tomorrow morning, the US will still be around as a functioning and productive country.

And Obama’s presence plus his plan to cut the Federal deficit by half by 2014 only adds more to that confidence. What is the lesson here : freedom, free speech, political stability and an open transparent system do have high economic value.

But the price of Gold is still galloping.

Liberal, Liberated, Progressive?

By Syed Akbar Ali

On Thursday 19^th February ’09 I wrote about Taliban violence towards women (see ‘Swat-ting Pakistan’). Quite predictably (and sadly too) there were a few comments strongly defensive of the Taliban. And again quite predictably the negative branding and labeling also started. Some mentioned ‘western, liberal’ and so forth.

Well I have said in my books that I am a fundamentalist, hard core, ultra conservative Muslim. I do not consider myself a liberal at all.

Now some news :

Economy Forces Divorced Couples to Live Together

By MARIECAR FRIAS, MARY PFLUM and LEE FERRAN

Feb. 19, 2009

Tony and Dawn Joyce of Chicago have four kids, share family meals and take turns doing the housework.

They sound like a typical married couple, but they're not. The Joyces divorced over a year ago but, due to financial restraints, continue living together. . . The Joyce's living situation may sound unique, but they're far from the only ones living in such a situation.

Here is another example (and picture) of another ‘divorced couple living under one roof’ situation:

"Running into your ex is almost always awkward and stressful. David Snyder and Nancy Partridge deal with it nearly every day. The Denver couple divorced after six years of marriage but have been forced to live together for months because they can't sell their place or afford to set up separate households in this slumping economy".

It will be safe to say that this would be deemed a typical example of 21^st century Western liberalism. People get divorced but continue living under the same roof.

Here is something from the Quran, which was written almost 1500 years ago.

Surah 65:1 : “O Prophet! When ye do divorce women, divorce them at their prescribed periods, and count their prescribed periods: And fear Allah your Lord: and turn them not out of their houses, nor shall they (themselves) leave, except in case they are guilty of some open lewdness, those are limits set by Allah: and any who transgresses the limits of Allah, does verily wrong his (own) soul: thou knowest not if perchance Allah will bring about thereafter some new situation.” Translation by ABDULLAH YUSUF ALI

This is a translation by the famous Abdullah Yusuf Ali. Here is another translation of the same verse 65:1 by the other famous translator Muhammad Marmaduke Pickthall:

“O Prophet! When ye (men) put away women, put them away for their period and reckon the period, and keep your duty to Allah, your Lord. Expel them not from their houses nor let them go forth unless they commit open immorality. Such are the limits (imposed by) Allah; and whoso transgresseth Allah's limits, he verily wrongeth his soul. Thou knowest not: it may be that Allah will afterward bring some new thing to pass” MUHAMMAD MARMADUKE PICKTHALL.

Here is a translation of the same verse 65:1 again by Shakir:

SHAKIR: O Prophet! when you divorce women, divorce them for their prescribed time, and calculate the number of the days prescribed, and be careful of (your duty to) Allah, your Lord. Do not drive them out of their houses, nor should they themselves go forth, unless they commit an open indecency; and these are the limits of Allah, and whoever goes beyond the limits of Allah, he indeed does injustice to his own soul. You do not know that Allah may after that bring about reunion.

And finally by Sher Ali :

O Prophet ! when you divorce women, divorce them for the prescribed period, and thereafter reckon the period; and fear ALLAH, your Lord. Turn them not out of their houses, nor should they themselves leave unless they commit manifest indecency. These are the limits set by ALLAH; and whoso transgresses the limits of ALLAH, he, indeed, wrongs his own soul. Thou knowest not; it may be that thereafter ALLAH will bring something new to pass.

Here is another verse from this Surah 65, verse no. 6 (ie Surah 65:6) about the divorced women:

“Let the women live in the same style as ye live, according to your means: Annoy them not, so as to restrict them. And if they carry (life in their wombs), then spend (your substance) on them until they deliver their burden: and if they suckle your (offspring), give them their recompense: and take mutual counsel together, according to what is just and reasonable. And if ye find yourselves in difficulties, let another woman suckle (the child) on the (father's) behalf” Surah 65:6, ABDULLAH YUSUF ALI

PICKTHAL’s translation of 65:6,

Lodge them where ye dwell, according to your wealth, and harass them not so as to straiten life for them. And if they are with child, then spend for them till they bring forth their burden. Then, if they give suck for you, give them their due payment and consult together in kindness; but if ye make difficulties for one another, then let some other woman give suck for him (the father of the child).

And by SHAKIR:

Lodge them where you lodge according to your means, and do not injure them in order that you may straiten them; and if they are pregnant, spend on them until they lay down their burden; then if they suckle for you, give them their recompense and enjoin one another among you to do good; and if you disagree, another (woman) shall suckle for him.

And finally by Sher Ali :

“Lodge the divorced women during the prescribed period in the houses wherein you dwell, according to your means, and harass them not that you may create hardships for them and thus force them to leave. And if they be with child, spend on them until they are delivered of their burden. And if they give suck to the child for you, give them their due recompense, to be fixed in consultation with one another according to what is customary; but if you meet with difficulty from each other, then let another women suckle the child for the father” 65:6.

Here I am merely reproducing these translations by four different expert translators of the Quran.

If you are wondering what is the name of this Surah 65, it is called Talaq or Divorce. There are only 12 verses in this Surah 65. Do read them. Once you have read all these 12 verses, you can honestly tell people that you have actually read in its entirety the Surah or Chapter in the Quran that deals with Divorce. (There are also a few other verses about divorce, spread throughout the Quran).

Deterministic Chaos In Perak.

By Syed Akbar Ali

Here is some gibberish. What is Chaos Theory? I am not a mathematician but in mathematics, chaos theory describes the behaviour of certain dynamical systems – that is, systems whose states evolve with time – that may exhibit dynamics that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

In English, this means that what we may observe to be random events, especially in nature, are actually NOT random. Their happening or outcomes are fully defined by their initial stimulus, with no randomness involved. This behavior is known as deterministic chaos.

I believe some deterministic chaos is going on right now in Perak. It also looks like courting kangaroos are becoming native to Perak too.

The suspension of the Perak MB and the six Exco members by Sivakumar the Speaker of the Perak State Assembly has stumped even Mr Karpal Singh of the DAP.

Recall that not too long ago Mr Karpal Singh openly called for the resignation of Anwar Ibrahim, the leader of the PKR and the Pakatan Rakyat for being a haywire leader. I have always felt that Anwar’s biggest weakness is his ineptitude. The brother cannot seem to strategise well.

The latest move by Sivakumar appears to have the blessings of Anwar Ibrahim too. It will only lend more credibility to Karpal’s call for Anwar to resign because this latest action in Perak appears set to backfire.

Here is a newsreport from the New Straits Times today:

Karpal stumped by Sivakumar's decision

IPOH: Pakatan Rakyat members are shaking their heads in disbelief over the suspension of Menteri Besar Datuk Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir and his six exco members by Speaker V. Sivakumar for 18 months and 12 months respectively.

Even DAP chairman Karpal Singh, a prominent lawyer, is stumped by Sivakumar's decision to order the suspension. Karpal told a press conference at Parliament House in Kuala Lumpur Sivakumar must call for the assembly to meet to endorse his decision to suspend Zambry and six executive councilors.

He said Sivakumar's decision must be endorsed by the house.

Several PR lawmakers here said the move was totally unexpected as they had painstakingly gone through the state constitution and the assembly's Standing Orders prior to Wednesday's hearing before the Rights and Privileges Committee.

"I was shocked upon hearing Sivakumar's decision. We had discussed about this (possibility of suspending Zambry and his exco members) and strongly advised against it. "By doing so, we have fallen into our own trap, akin to stepping on a banana peel planted by ourselves.

"I honestly do not know whose advice he (Sivakumar) took before making up his mind," said a PR lawmaker.

Karpal’s suggestion that Sivakumar should put the suspension to the Assembly first is echoed on both sides. Perak UMNO Youth secretary Hang Tuah Din cited Rule 72(2) of the Standing Orders stating :

“when the House was not in session, a state representative could complain to the Speaker of any offences. The Speaker, if satisfied that the offence appeared to have been committed, could refer it to the Rights and Privileges Committee. In turn, the committee must report it to the Assembly”

“It is clear he (Sivakumar) should have referred the matter to the Assembly, and not made a decision,” Hang Tuah told a press conference.

Hang Tuah Din’s statement tallies with Karpal’s view.

According to another comment, by not following the proper procedure, the Speaker has become “the investigator, the prosecutor and the judge at the same time” when such a decision by the Privileges Committees should have been referred to the House.

The Perak Assembly does not meet until April. Logically the Speaker cannot suspend any member of the Assembly until then. Pending the vote, the MB and the six Excos are not suspended. And when the Assembly sits in April, the MB and the six Excos targeted by Sivakumar must also have the right to vote over their own suspension. Otherwise it is as good as a confirmed suspension already and a mockery of the whole process.

(Imagine a situation where a Speaker goes berserk and suspends say 28 members of the Assembly. Why not? If the Speaker can suspend six Excos and the MB, why not suspend 12, 18 or 28 members of the Assembly?)

More importantly if you suspend an MB and six Exco members, how does the State Government function? How does this help the people of Perak? No matter how tasty or distasteful, the State of Perak and its people do not have an effective Government to rule its affairs. Is this what the Speaker Sivakumar really aims to do?

Granted that Sivakumar has a serious axe to grind with the new MB over the change in the Perak State Government. But that does not justify his present action. Suspending an MB and six Exco members on some excuse that they showed contempt to the State Legislature appears frivolous.

Again I can smell the presence of His Ineptitudeness here.

The suggestion that the MB and his Exco take this matter to Court to set aside the suspension imposed by the Speaker is sound. It must be pursued urgently.

If the Court sets aside the Speaker’s action, it is possible that it will be Sivakumar who is in contempt. This must be thought through extremely very carefully but Sivakumar can also be held in breach of other laws.

In my view treason against the Sultan is not an issue because Sivakumar has not denied that Zambry Kadir is the new MB of Perak. He recognizes the Sultan’s appointment of Zambry as the new MB. He has merely suspended the MB and six Excos based on procedure which does not seem right.

Over in Selangor, Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim the Selangor MB’s statement that he would like to seek the advice of the Sultan of Selangor over the Elizabeth Wong matter is also perplexing. In Perak, the MB’s cohorts resorted to protesting the Royalty including showing very poor decorum to the Sovereign over his decision on the Perak State Government matter.

Elizabeth Wong has already submitted her letter of resignation and she is reported to have left the country perhaps to get some relief.

Her resignation does not affect the status of the Pakatan Government in Selangor which enjoys a solid majority. If a By Election is declared in Bukit Lanjan the sympathy for Elizabeth Wong is very strong. Even BN Cabinet Ministers and leaders like Syed Hamid Albar and Nazri Aziz have expressed sympathy for Elizabeth.

So it remains to be seen what exactly the Selangor MB desires of the Sultan of Selangor in this matter. Or is it a move to show the Malay voters that the Pakatan has high regard for the Sultans?