Tuesday, April 14, 2026

GUTSHOT EP 67 : MALAYSIA NEEDS THE CORAZON AQUINO MOMENT







HOW TO CLOSE THE STRAITS OF MELAKA, US IS THE NEW MIDDLE EAST AND SUCH

 



The Straits of Hormuz was never closed or under the control of the Iranian IRGC at any time.  Since the 1st week of the war (first week March 2026) the US Navy has had full control of the Straits of Hormuz. 

Look at the map. The US Navy's 5th Fleet as well as their CENTCOM HQ are based in Bahrain, inside the Persian Gulf.  Throughout the hostilities the US Navy's 5th Fleet has moved freely in and out of Bahrain through the Straits of Hormuz. 

In the first 48 hours of the war the main 'small boats' of the Iranian Navy were sunk to the bottom of the sea.  What they had remaining were motorboats, some of which were used to lay some mines in the Straits of Hormuz. Not enough to fully cover the entire Straits.  The few mines have already been cleared.

But the Iranians did manage to stop ships from entering the Straits of Hormuz. Because they kept posting warnings in their state media that any ship entering the Straits ofHormuz would be sunk - even though they had no more Navy to sink any ships. Their missile arsenal has also been depleted. They have very short range shoulder fired missiles. 

But that was enough to frighten ship owners and the marine insurance companies in London and Rotterdam. Without marine insurance no ship operator or ship captain would enter the Straits of Hormuz.  The Straits of Hormuz were never 'closed'. But the daily threats by the Iranian regime to sink the ships frightened away most ship operators. 



Last Saturday 11th April 2026 the ceasefire talks in Islamabad between the Iranian regime and the US collapsed. The talks were "mediated" by the Pakistanis who by the way have already sent 13,000 Pakistani troops and some Pakistani Air Force jet squadrons to eastern Saudi Arabia (under their defence agreement). The 13,000 Pak troops and air force jets are obviously to defend Saudi Arabia against the Iranian regime.  The troops were sent before Pakistan "mediated" the ceasefire between Iran and the US. Hunting with the hounds and running with the hares. 

Anyway after the ceasefire  talks in Islamabad collapsed the Iranian regime went back to "closing" the Straits of Hormuz - something they are not capable of achieving because their entire Navy has been sunk to the bottom of the sea. 

The US has retaliated and has shut down the entire Iranian coastline. 



That red coastline is over 2400 km long and has the following ports:  

  • Khorramshahr
  • Abadan
  • Bandar Imam Khomeini
  • Mahshahr
  • Bushehr
  • Bandar Lengeh
  • Bandar Abbas
  • Kharg Island Crude Terminal
  • Chabahar
  • That last port Chabahar is actually operated by the Indians. This entire coastline is now fully shut down and controlled by the US Navy. Not a single ship will be allowed to enter or leave from the Iranian coastline.

    Since more than 90% of all Iranian imports and exports (of oil via Kharg Island) go through the sea this means the Iranian regime will have to shut down in the next few weeks. The country will shut down. The US will not resume their bombing against the Iranian regime.

    There will ultimately be a full regime change in Iran or the Iranian regime must agree to an unconditional surrender. 

    How to close the Straits of Melaka?

    You do not need bombs and missiles to close any straits in the world. Just issue a Notice To Seamen. Tell all ship captains that any ship entering the Straits of Melaka will be sunk. Nobody will dare to enter the Straits of Melaka. No insurance company will provide shipping insurance.

    The United States has now become the Middle East of the world. 

    The United States currently produces about 13.5–13.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, making it the world’s largest oil producer. About 9–9.7 million barrels per day of this comes from shale oil, mainly from the Permian Basin. The U.S. exports roughly around 4 million barrels per day of crude oil on average, though this can fluctuate with market conditions, meaning a significant share of its production is sold overseas.

    So there is no real oil shortage in the world. Yesterday oil prices dropped to US$97 per barrel. These fears over oil shortages is bullshit. The US will become an even bigger exporter of oil in the world. 

    Here is a prediction - the world market will prefer to buy oil from the US and shun the troublesome Middle East.  The Arabs and Persians cannot drink their oil. They must sell their oil. Folks, oil prices are going to crash. Just wait and see.


    . . . . SHALL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER



    Parti Bersatu is dead and gone. They will most likely team up with PKR and UMNO for survival. Too bad. All three are sinking. 

    PAS recently had their Hari Raya Open House. Video below. All were invited. It was a multi racial do. The man of the hour was Hamzah Zainuddin who has been kicked out of Bersatu. But Hamzah is still the leader of the Opposition in Parliament - a man without a party. How is that even possible?

    The answer is in the video below. Hamzah has the full support of Pas. Pas cannot rely on Bersatu anymore - they are sinking. But Pas needs friends who can pull the moderate and liberal Malay votes as well as the non-Malay votes. That is where Hamzah Zainuddin comes in.

    He who has the seats in Parliament shall be the next Prime Minister.




    Monday, April 13, 2026

    Stesen Minyak Kena Tanggung Sabsidi Dulu. Claim Balik Kemudian. Cashflow Terjejas.




    'Bekalan stesen minyak terjejas kerana jurang harga subsidi, pasaran kian besar'
    Alyaa Alhadjri
    Diterbitkan:  Apr 13, 2026 9:00 AM
    Dikemaskini: 9:22 AM

    • perbezaan melebar antara harga subsidi dan harga pasaran utk bahan api
    • di samping kos tambahan untuk pembelian digital
    • antara sebab stesen minyak tertentu di negara ini kehabisan bahan api.
    • meskipun jaminan kerajaan bahawa petrol dan diesel cukup hingga akhir Mei 
    Persatuan Pengusaha Stesen Minyak Bumiputera M'sia (Bumipeda) 
    memberitahu Mkini sebarang gangguan bekalan melangkaui isu logistik sementara
    "Gangguan bekalan semasa bukan sekadar isu logistik sementara
    tetapi mencerminkan ketidakpadanan struktur dalam sistem semasa.

    OSTB: ketidakpandaian means not clever

    • "Pengusaha beroperasi dalam margin terkawal sebagai 'price taker'
    • namun menanggung kos dan risiko yg semakin meningkat 
    • tanpa keupayaan untuk menyesuaikan harga
    • disokong Dewan Perniagaan Melayu M'sia & Majlis Tindakan Ekonomi M'sia 

    susulan laporan stesen minyak tertentu telah kehabisan diesel
    harga runcit semasa diselaraskan setiap minggu sejak April 2017 
    mewujudkan "ketidakpadanan" dgn harga sebenar stok yg dibeli oleh peniaga

    • "Ini wujudkan situasi harga runcit berubah lebih cepat dpd kos stok di stesen"
    • "Implikasinya, pengusaha terdedah kepada risiko turun naik harga. 
    • Dalam keadaan harga menurun, mereka terpaksa menjual stok yang dibeli pada harga lebih tinggi tanpa mekanisme pampasan, menyebabkan kerugian stok"
    • pengusaha perlu beli bahan api pada harga pasaran penuh
    • tetapi menjual kepada pengguna pada harga subsidi yang lebih rendah
    • "Perbezaan harga tersebut tidak dibayar terus kepada pengusaha
    • sebaliknya dituntut oleh syarikat minyak daripada kerajaan. 
    • pengusaha secara efektif dahulukan pembiayaan subsidi guna modal sendiri
    • modal ini boleh mencecah ratusan ribu ringgit pada satu-satu masa. 
    • pengusaha bukan sekadar pengedar runcit, tetapi pembiaya sistem subsidi 

    • 8 April Kementerian umum naik harga 70 sen kpd RM6.72 seliter diesel 
    • meskipun terdapat penurunan harga minyak global 
    • juga umumkan RON97 naik 40 sen kpd RM5.35 seliter
    • RON95 naik 40 sen kepada RM4.27 seliter.
    • RON95 bersubsidi kekal RM1.99 seliter 
    • diesel subsidi RM1.88, RM2.05 dan RM2.15 seliter pada sektor industri
    • Penstrukturan semula diperlukan
    • kenaikan harga meningkatkan keperluan modal kerja dgn mendadak
    • lebih 3,000 peniaga stesen minyak Bumiputera
    • model perniagaan yang semakin tidak mampan
    • pengusaha bumiputera bergerak utk menjual stesen minyak mereka

    "Tekanan ini dipengaruhi lagi oleh kelewatan penerimaan bayaran (T+1 atau lebih lama), yang menyebabkan modal kerja terkunci dalam sistem dan meningkatkan kebergantungan kepada pembiayaan jangka pendek serta kos kewangan tambahan," 

    gesaan untuk semakan menyeluruh terhadap mekanisme penetapan harga, struktur kos dan reka bentuk dasar bagi memastikan daya maju stesen minyak 

    • pembelian tanpa tunai mengenakan kos tambahan 1% melalui MDR
    • "diesel RM6.72 seliter, caj MDR 1% (6.72 sen seliter)
    • lebih separuh profit margin pengusaha
    • "Bagi 50,000 liter diesel menjana pendapatan kasar RM6,400 
    • tetapi caj MDR sebanyak RM3,360
    • Selepas tolak kos operasi, keuntungan sangat minimum atau negatif
    caj MDR dikenakan ke atas nilai penuh termasuk subsidi
    mewujudkan ketirisan indirect melalui kos transaksi 

    https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/772444

    My Comments:

    Sekali lagi pengusaha kecil SME seperti stesen minyak terpaksa tanggung beban yang lebih. Syarikat minyak gergasi yang menjual minyak kepada stesen minyak menerima bayaran penuh secara cash.  Ikut laporan Malaysiakini stesen minyak terpaksa tanggung financial cost dan opportunity cost sebab mereka terpaksa bayar harga mahal (termasuk sabsidi) tetapi jual minyak pada harga sabsidi yang lebih murah. Harga beli yang mahal tolak harga jualan bersabsidi yang lebih murah = jumlah cash yang mereka akan claim balik daripada kerajaan.

    Kalau sistem kerajaan untuk stesen minyak claim balik duit sabsidi adalah efficient maka masalah ini tidak akan timbul. Tetapi kalau kerajaan slow untuk membayar balik duit sabsidi yang didahulukan oleh stesen minyak maka kemungkinannya akan ada stesen minyak yang akan rugi besar dan terpaksa tutup kedai.   

    The most important thing adalah yang berikut. Stesen minyak ramai. Syarikat pembekal minyak (oil companies) satu atau dua sahaja. Stesen minyak bumiputera saja lebih 3,000 ahli. Maknanya sekurang-kurangnya 3,000 undi.  Stesen minyak bukan Melayu mungkin ramai lagi.  Jadi banyak undi boleh hilang. Bukan saja Sabah sudah terbang, tapi Sarawak sampai ke Perlis semuanya boleh melayang. 

    Dont say I did not warn you.

    Rupanya Kera Di Hutan Needs Diesel.


    There are some viral videos floating around our Social Media talking about the Philippines importing diesel from you know where.



    1.  First up here is the MCA's Wong Siew Mun in a TikTok video saying that Philippines imported 329,000 barrels of diesel from you know where:    

    Click here https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSHVW319A/     


    2.  Then Isham Jalil is saying basically the same thing, quite loudly, on YouTube click the link here:   https://youtu.be/kyMpq_vVOUY?si=Y4oTkT1BdYmWD8f-  


    3. Then there is this fellow who denied that the reports are true. Click here: 

    https://youtube.com/shorts/0u3NcJWYhJU?si=H0uRkVBaXYjRJS16  


    Because they mentioned the Department of Energy of the Philippines so I went to their website here


    And here is the news from their website (I have shortened it)

    Date published: Mar 30 2026 
    MEDIA RELEASE  30 March 2026
    DOE: 165.7M Liters of diesel secured through April to strengthen national fuel supply

    The Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that 1.042 million barrels of diesel, equivalent to 165,678,000 liters, have been secured for delivery through April as part of the government’s decisive actions to reinforce the country’s fuel supply position amid continued volatility in the global oil market due to the Middle East conflict.

    The first shipment, consisting of 142,000 barrels or 22,578,000 liters from Japan, arrived in the Philippines on 26 March 2026. 

    The remaining deliveries are set to arrive as follows:

    • 300,000 barrels (47,700,000 liters) from M----sia/Singapore - early April
    • 300,000 barrels (47,700,000 liters) from North Asia/India - mid-April
    • 300,000 barrels (47,700,000 liters) from Oman/Singapore - end April


    My Comments:

    I hope the Philippine Dept of Energy website is not fake. 

    Going on face value, the Philippine Dept of Energy website says they are getting 300,000 barrels or 47,700,000 liters of diesel in early April. Today is the 12th of April.

    So Wong Siew Mun is not klentonging. 
    Neither is Isham Jalil.

    What do I say? Takpelah. 
    If Philippines needs diesel, let them import diesel.  
    After all it is big profits for someone. 

    The big question mark is who exports the diesel to the Philippines? 
    Who makes the big profits?
    I can think of two names.
    Well both of them are c@bron. 

    Isham Jalil talks about kera di hutan and so on.
    Brother Isham - rupanya kau bukan kera bro. 
    Nasib baik juga.  

    Sunday, April 12, 2026

    DATA CENTERS AND HEAT POLLUTION

    Scientists have found an alarming environmental impact of vast data centers

    • data centers creating “heat islands” 
    • warming land around them by up to 16 degrees Fahrenheit
    • big gaps in our understanding of the impacts of data centers
    • heat released through energy-intensive processes
    • data centers house thousands of servers over million square feet
    • surface temperatures increased average 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit 
    • after data center started operations
    • extreme cases, temperatures increase by up to 16.4 degrees Fahrenheit
    • increases were consistent across the globe
    • Mexico’s Bajio temperature rises of around 3.6 degrees over 20 years
    • in Aragon, Spain, recorded temperature increase of 3.6 degrees 
    • temperature increases affected areas up to 6.2 miles away
    • findings alarming because data centers set to boom 


    Friday, April 10, 2026

    WHAT IS SPECIAL PLEADING?


    Special pleading is a logical fallacy where someone applies a standard, rule, or principle to others but unfairly exempts themselves (or their own case) without a valid justification.

    Simple idea:

    It’s basically saying:

    “The rules apply to everyone… except me (or this case), because I say so.”

    Example:  “Everyone needs evidence to support their claims—but my belief doesn’t need evidence because it’s special.”

    That’s special pleading because the person is avoiding the normal burden of proof without giving a solid reason.

    Why it’s a problem:   It breaks fair reasoning. If you make an exception for yourself,  it’s just bias.

    Another everyday example:  A student says: “Deadlines are important, so everyone should submit on time… but I should get extra time because I’m stressed.”

    (Others are also stressed, the rule should apply equally).

    There are other examples of Special Pleading for example Two Tier Policing. Police action is carried out "normally" against law breakers but some classes or groups of people are treated with kid gloves. Or no action is taken against them at all.

    For example the "normal" run of the legal system may see criminal cases being investigated by the Police and then brought to the Court within weeks or months.

    Then there maybe other cases which have not been resolved even after five years, 10 years or more. The delays maybe for no good reason. That is another example of Special Pleading.

    PAKISTAN, MESIR, ARAB SAUDI, TURKI DAMAIKAN KONFLIK ASIA BARAT



    WAKIL KAMPONG DOGOI MISSING IN ACTION.

    Saturday, April 4, 2026

    12 TYPES OF @$$E$ YOU SHUD NOT VOTE FOR IN GE 16

     








    TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ

    Here is a live map of shipping traffic going through the Straits of Hormuz as at 5 PM Saturday 4th April 2026. It is a live map from marinetraffic.com (click here).

    It is a live map available 24/7 so it changes by the minute.

    You can see the ship movements, their cargo and destinations.