- latest Iran demos now in fourth consecutive day
- significant escalation in Iran's internal pressure cooker
- combination of economic collapse, fatigue, eroding regime legitimacy
- could cascade regime collapse
- sparked off Dec 28, 2025 when Tehran’s Grand Bazaar strike
- to protest rial’s depreciation, inflation surpassing 42%
- rial’s free fall made essential imports out of reach
- igniting strikes among bazaar vendors, truck drivers, gold, furniture merchants
- By Dec 30 spread to university campuses in Tehran, Mashhad
- currency's free fall made essential imports out of reach, igniting strikes.
- fiscal mismanagement; diversion of resources to Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq
- regime corruption and incompetence.
- traditional regime-supporters join students, laborers, minorities to reject ayatollahs
- unrest in Tehran, Mashhad, Hamadan, Malard, Arak, Izeh, Kermanshah, Rasht, Shush
- bazaar closures paralyzing commercial arteries
- Slogans chant “Death to the dictator,” “Until the mullah is killed”
- broad participant base: women, youth, ethnic minorities, retirees, workers.
- intergenerational, cross-strata composition
- IRGC deployed tear gas, live rounds, birdshot in Hamadan, Izeh
- Ayatollahs responded with violence
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps crackdowns
- deployment of Afghan mercenaries to compensate for reluctant domestic forces
- Ayatollahs ready to use lethal violence, mass detentions, targeted eliminations
- IRGC crowd-control capabilities, sniper teams, chemical agents
- Low morale among enforcers
- defection in provincial garrisons
- protests economically driven, widespread, commercial shutdowns
- Bazaar participation - pillar of regime’s support base marks systemic fracture
- 2022-2023 movement violent, sustained over months with women at forefront
- current protests predominantly economic-focused
- bazaar-led economic leverage over immediate livelihood crises
- sustained economic strikes could paralyze key sectors
- regime deploys maximum force, mass arrests
- if strikes spread to refineries, ports, IRGC defections could cascade nationwide
