Here is a must watch 21 minute video on the Iran bungle by Tom Nash. I have uploaded his podcasts a few times before. Tom Nash's analysis about the entire Ayatollah and Middle East situation is spot on.
Within a few days of the Hamas attack of October 7th 2023 Tom Nash made a very accurate prediction that after Hamas was defeated the Gaza Strip would be "cantonised" - broken up into smaller cantons. Each canton will then be administered (through local government) by different Arab families who are well known in their areas (the Arab clan system).
I only got the 'cantonisation' of Gaza correct but not as a post-hostilities solution. I had no inkling of the administration by clans idea. Apparently there is some history to this method in the Middle East. (Like the Kapitan Kling and Kapitan China system).
Here is Tom Nash's comprehensive but concise brief of what has happened and what will happen in the Middle East. My comments follow.
My comments:
There is an unbelievable over concentration of foolish and stupid behaviour throughout the Middle East. From Pakistan to Morocco they are just unable to modernise their thinking. Even when they migrate to the super modern West the people from these parts of the world dress like villagers and goat herders. Not only do they dress the part but they also play the part.
In Iran the ineptitude of the ayatollahs have also seriously damaged the Shia religion. Discussion (on Social Media by Iranians) treats the Shia religion as an absurdity. They call it the 'Islamic colonization' and 'Islamic occupation' of Iran. Meaning they do not see the Shia religion as part of their lives at all.
And they still believe in superstition, hocus pocus and magical nights that can change their fates. They also believe in animals that can talk like humans and flying quadrupeds. The psychologists will have more concise words to describe these conditions.
- The ayatollahs push the idea that Imam Mahdi is the hidden 12th Imam who will return to establish global justice. (They believe he lives somewhere in occultation inside a cave).
- Iran’s clerical establishment teaches that he is alive but in occultation.
- The doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih holds that a senior jurist (the ayatollah Supreme Leader) rules on his behalf until his return.
- This provides theological legitimacy for the Ayatollah's political authority.
- Leaders portray obedience to the ayatollah Supreme Leader as indirectly tied to loyalty to the Imam Mahdi.
- Mahdist rhetoric can frame regional interventions (in other countries) as “preparing the ground” for his return.
- It reinforces revolutionary identity and resistance ideology domestically and abroad.
In a nutshell that is what the ayatollahs have been selling. The ultimate end of this type of ineptitude is what is happening to the ayatollahs in Iran today.
Since the very first minutes of this round of annihilation which began five days ago on February 28th, 2026 the Israelis and the Americans have been able to fly in and out of Iran without suffering even a scratch from the ayatollahs.
(Three American soldiers died in Kuwait as a result of shrapnel wounds. So far that is about it. The Americans shot down three of their own F15s through mistaken friendly fire. The Americans do that from time to time).
But other than that the Americans and Israelis have complete dominance over Iranian airspace. The past two days the Americans have sunk all 11 major vessels of the Iranian navy - including old container ships and oil tankers converted into super slow moving helicopter carriers. They were all sunk over the past 48 hours.
Now they are discussing the real possibility of putting boots on the ground. This could happen through an unconditional surrender by the ayatollah regime which is not impossible. Maybe yes maybe no but it reflects the confidence of the Americans and the crumbling ayatollah hold on Iran.
The Israelis have been studying the entire ayatollah landscape in Iran with electron microscopes. Minus democratic processes, minus free thinking and minus open discussion, the entire intellectual leadership of Iran was dependent on what was inside the ayatollah's turban. And as we all know there is only empty space inside any turban.
Hence the Israeli decapitation strikes. Once the heads are removed the entire ayatollah chain of command has collapsed. This is exactly what the Israelis have achieved. The regime in Iran is now running around like headless chickens.
This condition is not unique to Iran. There are many other Third World societies that suffer this exact same foolishness. They are very weak in social institutions. (Women are considered a problem). They are very weak in respect for law and order, they are weak in administrative institutions. They are over dependent on the aptitude (or lack thereof) of one leader or the regime. They are stuck in the Stone Age. It is so easy to defeat these types of backward societies.
There is hope for Iran. In a post-ayatollah Iran the ordinary people of Iran have a great capacity to rise and shine. A great future awaits them. I hope things work out for them.






