Things are coming to some sort of grand finale in Europe. Poland made an announcement (which I believe I predicted / posted a couple of years ago).
Poland wants a port in Odessa and 500 thousand hectares of Ukrainian land — Polsat News - April 4th, 2025
Poland says they would like to have the Odessa port in Ukraine. Or have access to a port in Odessa where Poland can export grains through the Black Sea. They have suggested leasing part of Odessa for 50 years. Plus they want about 500,000 hectares of Ukrainian land as well. (Thats over a million acres).
You can see in the map that Poland opens to the Baltic Sea, then the North Sea and the northern Atlantic. A Black Sea port will put them much closer to China and Asia.
But there is a serious problem - firstly there is no way Ukraine will agree to this. But there is a war going on and Ukraine is getting their @$$ kicked by the Russians. So they have just kept quiet. The other problem is the distance from the Polish border to Odessa is just over 1,000 km. This suggestion does not sound real at all - even as a leasing option.
Unless Russia and Poland agree to carve up Ukraine between themselves? Impossible? It will destroy any type of European union forever.
Or it could be a not so subtle message from Poland to Ukraine that Polish support in the Ukraine war comes at a price. The British have already secured mining and mineral rights in Ukraine with their 100 Year Agreement. Donald Trump also wants access to rare metals deposits in Ukraine. Everybody wants a piece of Ukraine.
The Russians are steadily advancing all along the 1,200 km frontlines. The latest news says that the Russians are preparing 150,000 extra troops (equal to about 15 divisions) for an offensive that should be beginning about now. Winter is turning to spring with its terrible mud. Once the weather warms up, the mud will be more manageable. There is talk of a massive Spring and Summer offensive by the Russians. Mr Putin says that this offensive will determine the outcome of the war.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that any major offensive by Russia will mean that Russia does not want a ceasefire. I think this is double talk.
I believe that the US and Russia are in cahoots over this planned offensive. Here is my reasoning (which is why people read this blog anyway). Mr Trump has spoken directly on the phone at least twice (that we know of) to Mr Putin. Mr Trump announced a temporary ceasefire against attacking energy infrastructure on both sides (power generation, coal, gas pipelines etc). Mr Putin accepted the terms and Russia stopped attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. But the British disagreed and sabotaged the ceasefire immediately. They kept attacking gas pipelines inside Russia. Despite this breach, Russia is still observing Donald Trump's ceasefire - there is no news of Russia attacking Ukraine energy infra (or I may have missed it).
The planned Spring Offensive could be a play by Russia to force an end to the war - if the Russians take territory (and they will) then Ukraine may be forced to agree to a ceasefire. And the US will exert pressure on Ukraine to agree to the ceasefire - again by not giving Ukraine any more support.
This is happening already. As an example NATO has called for a big meeting (on April 11th) of NATO members at Ramstein in Germany. For the first time in the history of NATO, the US will NOT be attending this meeting. This is not only a major slap in the face of NATO but it is actually the end of NATO.
'US Representatives will not attend Ramstein meeting for first time – Defense News
Oleg Pavliuk, Tetyana Oliynyk — Wednesday, 2 April 2025'
NATO and the EU are panicking. So although Donald Trump was laughing when he asked Keir Starmer at the White House whether "the British could take on Russia by yourselves" he was not joking at all.
The April 11 NATO meeting is not relevant anymore. NATO is not relevant anymore. That Spring Offensive is fully relevant.
The EU members are demanding a ceasefire whereby Russia will withdraw from the Crimea and the four Russian speaking oblasts which they have already occupied for three years now. They also want Russia to pay war reparations and Mr Putin to be tried as a war criminal. In other words an unconditional surrender by Russia. The EU is talking as though Ukraine has defeated Russia.
That is not going to happen. What is going to happen is that the Russians may take a straight line from Odessa to Kharkiv (see map above). Then call for a ceasefire.
Will the British concede defeat? Not likely. The British want to keep the war going.
What will happen ultimately? The rift between the US and the British will have to crack wide open. Italy, Hungary, Serbia and a few other NATO countries already do not agree with the EU. The British are no more in the EU (BREXIT) yet they have so much influence.