IRANIAN COASTLINE SHUTDOWN. DOW JONES IS UP.

The US naval blockade against Iran which started on April 13th 2026 is now into its third day. Here is marinetraffic.com's live map (as at 9:15 pm 16th April 2026 local KL time) of the Iranian coastline along the Persian Gulf.

As you can see the entire Iranian coastline (highlighted in yellow) is now at a standstill. There is hardly any ship movement - certainly no movement of those gigantic oil tankers which used to carry away three million barrels of Iranian oil every day.

No one pondered this move by the Americans (and the Israelis). Certainly not the Iranian regime. And it appears that there will be more surprises. 

Here is the Dow Jones. It has shot up from 47,600 points on 13th April to 48,463 yesterday 15th April 2026. There is more upside coming.

HOW WALL STREET FINANCED THE RISE OF COMMUNIST RUSSIA.

For those interested in some "contemporary" western history. This is 30 minutes well spent.

FORECASTS: BY END 2026 OIL PRICE AT US$55 - US$60 PER BARREL

 

Yesterday the price of crude oil (WTI) fell to just below US$91 per barrel. This is two days after the United States Navy imposed a naval blockade of the entire Iranian coastline. 

This indicates two things - 

1.  the world can do without 3.0 million barrels of Iranian oil (their daily production). 
2. The world markets prefer peace more than anything else. The naval blockade is on but the shooting from Iran has stopped. 

Here is ChatGpt with a list of forecasts of world oil prices at end 2026 by the World Bank, Goldman Sachs, Reuters and other banks: 

• Baseline forecasts (most institutions): around US$55–60/bbl average for 2026 (e.g. EIA ~US$55, JPM ~US$60).
• World Bank view: ~US$60/bbl in 2026 (downward trend).
• Goldman Sachs / banks: even lower, around mid-$50s (≈US$56).
• Reuters poll: ~US$61 average (slightly above $60).
• End-2026 (not average):
• Some projections: ~US$70/bbl by end-2026 after earlier spikes.
• But bearish scenarios: could stay in $50s–$60 range if oversupply persists.
• Key drivers:
• Oversupply vs modest demand → downward pressure
• Geopolitical risks (e.g. Middle East) → upside spikes (even >$100 short term)
• Bottom line
• Average 2026: mostly below or around $60
• End-2026: uncertain — base case often near/above $60 (≈$60–70)
• Yes/No: Not clearly below $60 by end-2026 — depends heavily on geopolitics.

The baseline forecasts (average??) indicate an oil price of between US$55 to US$60 per barrel by end 2026.  

There is strong demand for oil at any day of the week but the supply of oil is going to be more than what the markets can absorb.  There is an oil glut developing. Once this Iran thingy is settled there will be even more oil flowing into the world markets. 

The oil rig count in the US is almost constant (550 rigs in March). The oil rigs are not exactly in a hurry to increase production. 

If oil drops to US$60 per barrel or lower, many, meeny, miny oil exporting countries are going to be in serious financial trouble. Benua Asia Tenggalam will be among them. (And the dodo is going into a General Election).

GUTSHOT EP 67 : MALAYSIA NEEDS THE CORAZON AQUINO MOMENT