I dont know who wrote this (thank you anyway) but it was sent to me by a former AG. I believe it is going around. Adapted and edited slightly by me. My comments in blue.
PKR is Finished - Only 7 Safe Seats Left — And Most Belong to Rafizi Camp
The release of PKR's own internal analysis for the 16th General Election paints a sobering picture.
(OSTB : Actually it is a disastrous picture).
Of the 7 Tier 1 seats, at least 4 are held by figures associated with the "Team Hiruk" or Rafizi Ramli-aligned camp: Pandan (Rafizi himself), Subang (Wong Chen), Petaling Jaya (Lee Chean Chung), and Ampang (Rodziah).
In Tier 2A, a significant portion — including Ledang (Syed Ibrahim), Johor Bahru (Akmal Nasir), Pasir Gudang (Hassan Karim), Wangsa Maju (Zahir Hassan), Setiawangsa (Nik Nazmi), Gopeng (Tan Kar Hing), and Port Dickson (Aminuddin Harun) — also lean toward this faction.
This means roughly 11 of the 20 most winnable seats (Tiers 1 and 2A) are tied to the reformist-leaning group that challenged the leadership in the party polls.
Promises from figures like R----an (who claimed dethroning Rafizi would deliver 80 seats) and Amiruddin Shari (who suggested PKR could endure "another 100 years" without Rafizi) now look embarrassingly detached from reality.
The irony is brutal.
Tambun, Gombak, and Sungai Buloh — all seats tied to the top leadership — have slipped into marginal or worse territory.
After gaining power, Rear Admiral systematically redirected gomen actions, budgets, announcements, and policies toward courting ultra-conservative “walaun” constituencies — the very seats PKR has zero realistic chance of winning.
Rear Admiral took from PKR’s core supporters — the urban, progressive, M40, moderate Malays, Chinese, Indians, SMEs, and entrepreneurs — and funnelled resources, attention, and concessions to groups that have always viewed PKR with suspicion and contempt.
No matter how much you rob Peter (your loyal base) to pay Paul (the vampire bloc), they will never be grateful.
This group (walaun) operates with a toxic combination of high entitlement, perpetual dissatisfaction, greed, anger, hate, and a hardened victim mentality. (OSTB: Here I di$agree. There i$ a much $impler rea$on for their behaviour. Would you like to gue$$?)
There is literally no way to please them (walaun). Give them an inch, they demand a mile. Placate their demands, they brand you as weak and ask for more. (OSTB: This is in their DNA. This is in their blood. Jangan buat tak tahu).
This is a demographic that rewards only maximalist identity politics — something PKR was never built for and will never master. (OSTB: was never built for? Will never master? You must be living in lala land. This is exactly the type of swamp they breed and brood in. They are in their element. Read my conclusion ok)
The result is pure political malpractice: Yang dikejar tak dapat, yang dikendong berciciran. (OSTB: Wrong. Unlimited supply of chicken now. Reban ayam ada lobang di belakang. Exactly what they kejar.)
Rear Admiral has lost the support of the blind, gaining nothing from the constituencies he desperately chased.
Despite decades of political experience and multiple bitter defeats, Rear Admiral still pursues the delusional dream of becoming “Malay enough” or “Islamic enough” for the hardline base.
History has taught the same lesson repeatedly: this strategy fails every single time. Yet Rear Admiral refuses to learn.
And here comes the worst-case scenario that should terrify every PKR leader:
What if Rafizi Ramli’s “Team Real Reform” doesn’t just hold their current strong seats — but also sweeps the final remaining 10 safe seats?
PKR would be left with literally nothing.
Because the moderate, progressive, neutral, urban, M40, intellectual Malay, Chinese, Indian, SME, and entrepreneur voters — the very lifeblood of PKR — are furious and feel deeply betrayed by Rear Admiral.
They can see he abandoned reform principles, broke promises, and sold out the coalition for short-term conservative pandering.
(OSTB: The blind rubbed their eyes and suddenly they could see).
Previous surveys (INVOKE and others) already showed PH haemorrhaging 32% of Chinese and 38% of Indian support. That erosion has almost certainly deepened.
(OSTB: Why not do another survey?)
How do you campaign in Petaling Jaya, Subang, or Ampang by proudly listing how many billions were given to conservative causes or how much taxpayer money was donated overseas?
Urban voters are not stupid.
(OSTB: Err..they were stupid for a long, long time. Hopefully not anymore).
They see exactly where their taxes went — and where their hopes went to die.
PKR under Rear Admiral has rotted from the inside.
It has forgotten its roots, its struggle, its principles, and the people who actually delivered it to power.
The internal data confirms what many have suspected: the party is staring into the abyss.
GE16 risks becoming the funeral of PKR as a serious political force.
Rear Admiral's stubborn refusal to learn from history, combined with his betrayal of the progressive base, has created the perfect storm for total collapse.
The numbers don’t lie.
PKR’s own report just signed the party’s death warrant.
CONCLUSION: Rear Admiral was in the Bamboo River Resort on these dates Sept 1998 to Sept 2004, then Feb 2015 to May 2018. When he was not around the party performed quite well. They finally won power (in 2018) when he was still inside the Bamboo River Resort.
Before that when he was in UMNO, the party also split in two after he became No. 2. So he has a track record of splitting things up. After he was kicked out of UMNO in 1998 the party maintained 2/3 majority for another 10 years until 2008. And Umno still stayed in power for another 10 years until 2018.
During his absence the wife was running the show and the party held together quite well. But since 2018 (when he was released from prison) things have gone haywire for the party. Even the wife is not seen anymore.
On a personal level, they have also been completely kicked out of their "family" seat in the north. In the last round the daughter lost their family seat to an unknown ustaz from Pas. Nobody even knows that Pas fellow's name. Do you?
And then the travelling caravan started. He had to run for a super safe seat in another place - the beach resort town. Then in no time the welcome became worn out. So he had to go looking for another safe seat in Perak. That seat too is now highly risky. He is not welcome anymore. The bigger issue is where will he stand for elections? Which seat will vote for him? Beijing North is not available.
