GUTSHOT PODCAST: EP 57 Iran Update - Where is the Cardboard Ayatollah?

Sam and I discuss the latest situation in Iran. This podcast was taped on Friday 13th March, 2026.

US WILL HAVE TO TAKE STRAITS OF HORMUZ

 

The map shows the Persian Gulf side of the Straits of Hormuz. Note those FIVE small islands (circled in red) that 'guard' the entrance to the straits. The islands are Farur, Greater and Lesser Tunb, Siri and Abu Musa. All of them belong to Iran. Abu Musa is contested by the UAE. 

The military analysts say that to secure the straits permanently the Americans will have to occupy these five islands.  Once the Americans occupy these islands they have complete control of the Straits of Hormuz. Iran will be out of the picture. Two of these islands, although small, have airstrips where American aircraft can land and take off. Again if that happens it will be complete dominance of the straits by the US.

Occupying these five islands may also be a prerequisite for the Americans taking and occupying Kharg Island - further up the gulf. Or they may do them all at once. 

The amphibious landing shup aka helicopter carrier USS Tripoli is already in the area. On their way are about 5000 Marines and sailors of the Marine Expeditionary Force from Japan. There be more fireworks.  

DOES ANYONE RECALL THE GAS PIPELINE EXPLOSION DURING HARI RAYA LAST YEAR?

 

Here is some old news: 

Rubbish’: residents still traumatised, question .. final report

02 July 2025

KUALA LUMPUR – Residents impacted by gas pipeline explosion in P---a H-----s have criticised the final investigation report, calling it “rubbish” and saying that it has not helped ease the concerns of those still traumatised by the event.

also expressed worries the report brings up safety issues in the vicinity.
people still questioning construction of shop lots close to pipeline 
“Why hasn’t this happened in other places where there are gas pipelines? 
I’ve lived there for over 14 years and nothing like this has ever happened.
“Residents questioning construction of shop lots near where pipeline is located. 
If no disturbance to pipeline or surrounding area, this would never happen” 

DoSH reported explosion of underground pipeline due to failure of the pipeline, which was unable to withstand the weight and pressure because of inadequate soil conditions beneath it.  Petroleum Safety Division director explained that this instability led to a leak and ultimately resulted in the explosion.

large number of residents lost confidence with authorities who approved project

“It’s not just the residents in this estate who are questioning this, but also those in the surrounding estates, as well as those who live near gas pipelines throughout the country, who have also expressed their concerns,” he said.

“Residents are still living in fear, the trauma has not gone away and they don’t know what the future holds because there is no communication, especially from the authorities and the state government, in informing them of the steps they are taking.

called on govt to come forward with thorough and clear investigation so that residents are not constantly plagued by anxiety.

“We really hope govt can resolve this issue by providing a complete explanation so that residents can live peacefully and safely again.

In the incident on April 1, the gas pipeline explosion caused a major fire and widespread property damage.

The explosion, which occurred at about 8.10am on the second day of Hari Raya Aidilfitri, affected 529 residents from 118 families.

A total of 235 premises, including homes and shops, were affected, with 87 units completely destroyed.

In addition, 225 vehicles were damaged. The incident injured 126 people, some of whom were treated in intensive care. – July 2, 2025

My Comments:  So has the problem been solved? 

If the  pipeline, which was unable to withstand the weight and pressure because of inadequate soil conditions beneath it   so have the inadequate soil conditions beneath the pipeline been fixed? What about the soil conditions along the entire length of the pipeline? 

When they first built the pipeline there must have been geo-technical studies done on the soil conditions. So what happened? 

affected 529 residents from 118 families, total of 235 homes, shops affected, 87 units completely destroyed

What is the fate of all those people one year after the pipeline explosion?

Just recalled that pipeline explosion over Hari Raya last year.

DONALD TRUMPISM

 

AYATOLLAHS ESCAPE TO CANADA. US MAY TAKE KHARG ISLAND OIL TERMINAL

Here are screen grabs from Tousi TV showing an Iranian mullah and his family arriving in Toronto, Canada. Tousi TV reports that other mullahs have escaped to the United Kingdom where all scoundrels are quite welcome. 

The media says that the cardboard Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also owns a luxury house in London, England. He is possibly neighbours with some of our own crooks who also have houses in London.

Above and below: An Iranian mullah and his family arriving in Toronto, Canada. With some of their luggage (cash, gold bars, diamonds?)

Yesterday President Trump also ordered the bombing of Kharg Island (picture below). Mr Trump has said that military targets on Kharg Island were completely destroyed but the oil facilities were untouched.

Kharg Island is a small, approximately 20-square-kilometre (roughly 8-square-mile) island in the northern Persian Gulf, located about 30 kilometers (19 miles) off the Iranian coast. It measures roughly 8 km in length and 3-4 km in width, serving as Iran's primary crude oil export terminal and handling 90% of its exports.

It has also been reported that the US is sending 5,000 Marines to the Persian Gulf. 

The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (31st MEU) which is based in Japan under the United States Indo-Pacific Command has now been ordered to move toward the Middle East.  The 31st MEU includes several ships and about 5,000 Marines. Officials said the assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7) and its Marines are already heading to the Middle East.

Officials say that the MEU provides a wide range of military capabilities that commanders can use if required, not just ground combat. The unit includes advanced aircraft such as a squadron of F-35 Lightning II fighter jets and a squadron of Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey aircraft.

There are suggestions that this Marine Expeditionary unit will be a holding force on Kharg Island AFTER the oil terminal is taken by US Special Forces - most likely the Navy Seals and Marines (since this operation comes under the US Navy). 

There are approximately 2,900 active-duty Navy SEALs, with roughly 200 more in the reserves, for a total of over 3,100 personnel. They are organized into ten operational teams, typically with each team comprising eight 16-man platoons. They operate under the Naval Special Warfare Command.

Here is Kharg Island wrt the Persian Gulf area:

The Americans built Kharg Island in the 1950s. They chose this island so that in the event of war if they captured this island then the entire Iranian oil output will come under their control.

I think this is exactly what will happen soon. Once the Iranian regime loses 90% of their oil revenues, they cannot function anymore.  

Once the regime's military is fully neutralised holding the island will not be too risky.

Also no one especially the Iranian regime wants to destroy the island's oil facilities because it will take years to restore the oil facilities (and 90% of Iran's oil revenue).

p.s. Yesterday the Chinese have also distanced themselves from the ayatollahs for their indiscriminate attacks against oil tankers and against 12 other countries throughout the region. This is a significant break from China's previously friendly relations with the ayatollahs.  Lets see.

ANTHONY LOKE, NEVER MIND. NO NEED TO HURRY.

 

• Never mind Anthony. 
• There is no hurry. 
• Take your time. 
• No need to rush RCI or whatever. 
• Probe is ok. 
• Follow up is good enough. 
• Dont worry-lah. 
• Small matter only.

COUP DE ETAT IN TEHERAN?

 

A few days back they announced that a new Supreme Leader has been appointed in Iran - he being Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56 year old son of the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

But Mojtaba has not been seen in public since February 28, 2026 which is the day Israel attacked Iran and killed Ali Khamenei and members of his family. It was said at that time that Mojtaba Khamenei had also been killed, he was seriously wounded, he lost one leg, he went into a coma and is still in a coma or all of the above.

It was quite a surprise for a lot of people that he had been chosen as the Supreme Leader of Iran. Chosen by who because the 88 member Council of Experts (who choose the Supreme Leader) has also been largely killed.

But Mojtaba has not been seen in public, he has not made any video messages or audio messages since February 28th. And for the announcement of his appointment as the Supreme Leader they brought out a cardboard cutout of Mojtaba at an official ceremony. Picture below. People ended up kissing the cardboard cutout.

There are more incoherent reasons why Mojtaba has not been seen in public and why they brought out a cardboard cutout. 

It is possible that some elements of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp) in Teheran have engineered a coup de etat. There is no replacement for the Supreme Leader. All the likely choices have been killed in the airstrikes. 

My view is the IRGC has used the chaos in Iran to engineer this coup de etat. They first declare Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. Dead, in a coma, has lost one or both legs does not matter. As long as he is incapacitated and is not around to spoil the soup. If he is dead or is incapacitated what it really means is that the IRGC has denied or blocked the next-in-line mullah from becoming Supreme Leader again. Meaning the IRGC is now in charge of the regime. Using cardboard cutouts of  Mojtaba Khamenei to legitimise whatever they do. 

And after sufficient time they may announce that Mojtaba died of his injuries.

Despite being killed 14 days ago on Feb 28th, the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not had an official funeral. This is strange considering that other ranking Iranians who were also killed have been given official funerals. Either his body is in the freezer or they have given him a quiet burial - minus any publicity.

Which also provides a 'cover story' for his son Mojtaba the new Supreme Leader (in case he too is dead) NOT having to attend his father's official funeral.

Snap Polls in Malaysia? There is the "Iranian ballistic missiles" question.

DAP holding special congress on July 12,  delegates will vote whether party leaders should resign all govt positions ministerial posts, state EXCO roles, and positions in GLCs 

The following is adapted and edited from CNA here:    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/graft-crisis-pkr-party-fractures-ph-coalition-jitters-5976646

I have some comments after this:

• snap poll rumbles grow, internal strife, widening anti-graft controversy​
• multiple challenges may force early elections
• nearly two years ahead of Feb 2028 deadline
• secret meeting between UMNO and opposition
• long-time ally DAP rethinking their ties
• allegations besieging MACC chief

• developments occurring almost concurrently 
• now pose most serious threat to tenure 
• pressure on PH coalition may force early elections
• nearly two years ahead of Feb 2028 deadline
• pressure building, perfect storm brewing

• Of particular concern little-known meeting in Bangkok in mid-Dec
• between leaders from UMNO, Bersatu, PAS sources told CNA
• UMNO president attended with party sec-gen 
• Bersatu represented by Hamzah Zainudin
• PAS by secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan
• 'PH' not informed of Bangkok meeting
• according to anonymous sources in admin
• only acknowledged after confronted by Saifuddin Nasution 
• who had been alerted by Thai intelligence, sources told CNA.
• "there are trust issues with UMNO now."

PRESSURE MOUNTS FOR EARLY POLLS

• pressure building within DAP to hold 16th GE together with three state polls 
• next GE scheduled by Feb 17, 2028
• Early GE near certainty. 
• Sabah/S'wak want it, and so does DAP
• DAP's wipeout 8 seats in Sabah exposed Chinese disenchantment  
• loss of DAP credibility forcing reckoning, DAP leaders acknowledge
• DAP now sees PKR as weak ally 
• Many leaders want to leave PH and go solo said DAP's Ronnie Liu
• DAP party leadership faces heavy pressure from disenchanted "Chinese" 
• pressure prompted Anthony Loke to demand to align federal & state polls
• and whether to maintain the current PH coalition framework.
• whether we want to continue cooperation model for next GE Loke said

DAP holding special congress on Jul 12,  delegates will vote whether party leaders should resign all govt positions ministerial posts, state EXCO roles, and positions in GLCs

• MACC WOES
• also facing pressure from widespread misconduct at MACC
• casting doubt on tackling graft
• key issue is scandal engulfing the chief 
• allegations, slow progress of reforms, pushed DAP to rethink ties
• DAP called for MACC chief immediate replacement and RCI 
• DAP officials now thinking to advance July congress if RCI rejected 
• party to evaluate position in coalitions when time comes for elections

• PKR FACTIONAL WAR
• deepening fissures in PKR.
• Rafizi Ramli leads growing faction of dissenters
• Rafizi resigned from Cabinet 
• claims MACC has been weaponised 
• His open criticism has further split PKR
• Rafizi's faction includes eight MPs (out of 31 PKR MPs) 
• delicate political arithmetic holding coalition together 

• PH holds 79 seats in 222-member Parliament
• 33 seats away from simple majority
• relies on UMNO, Sabah, Sarawak coalitions to govern
• This is why Bangkok meeting potential challenge, said insiders
• Bersatu had 19 seats
• PAS holds 43 parliamentary seats, UMNO 26. 
• Together, would command 88 MPs - larger than PH
• Whether Sabah and Sarawak switch sides remains unclear

BREATHING SPACE, FOR NOW

• early polls remain very real prospect, analysts said
• Parliament will automatically dissolve on Dec 19 2027 
• Melaka, Swak', Johor polls in Dec 2026, Feb 2027, April 2027 respectively.
• widespread speculation UMNO in Melaka, Johor suspend assemblies in Sept
• stable economy, strengthening currency, buoyant stock market 
• EPF 6.15 % dividend for 2025, paying RM79.6 b to contributors.
• we will have hung Parliament 
• current report card for PH very weak 
• failure to deliver on election promises
• Coalition partners threatening to leave 

My Comments:

The easy ones first. 

Sabah and Swak will not switch to a coalition with PAS. If Abang Johari does that the Dayak Christian majority in Sarawak will revolt. Abang Johari will lose the Dayak vote. 

The only way around this problem is if Pas can learn to speak Dayak. That is not going to happen anytime soon.

Secret meeting between UMNO and opposition in Bangkok.   Here is an AI generated picture. What do you think? 

There are only two things that are relevant in this article by CNA.

Point No. 1 - The DAP is going to get their butts kicked out by the Chinese voters. Sabah 8-0 is going to be repeated on a grand scale. 

Economy improving, stock market moving, EPF over 6% dividend does not mean a thing outside the Klang Valley. The bulk of the country's voters are in Johor, Perak, Sabah, Swak, Kedah etc- outside the Klang Valley. 

Go and ask them how are they going to vote. 

Read this article again. It is disaster news for the ruling jokers. 

In 2022 they won only 79 Parliamentary seats - 33 seats far away from a simple majority.  In 2022 the DAP won 40 seats, the PKR 31 won seats. Does anyone seriously believe that in the next GE the DAP can retain all those 40 seats? Or that PKR can retain all those 31 seats?  That is not going to happen. 

Lets say between the DAP and PKR they lose just 10 seats - that means they can only secure 69 Parliamentary seats in total. That means they will be 43 seats further away from a simple majority (of 112 Parliamentary seats). 

I dont think they are going to form the next gomen.

Then there is the "Iranian ballistic missiles" question. Meaning it is very explosive. Where exactly is that fellow going to run? Which Parliamentary seat? The ginger farmers will kick him out. There are no more safe seats.

Is Theresa Kok going to give up her seat? Even if she does, there is no guarantee the Chinese voters will not kick him out.  The daughter's political future is also over. There is no seat where she can win.  So how?

So you can talk, talk, talk. You can bla, bla, bla.   Then suddenly kaboom - the fellow loses his seat. Malu lah. It is not an impossibility. So the DAP better think carefully. Your ayam is not going to make it.

Point No 2 - the fate of the ordinary Malaysian is not improving much. They still have not asked me, 'Mr Syed Akbar what can we do for you?'.

None of the political parties seem to care about the fate of the ordinary Malaysian. Today I got RM150 deposited in my bank account by the gomen. Thank you for giving me back some of my money. That is taxpayer's money. My money. 

Then I got another RM400 in my 'Sara' account for buying groceries. Again thank you for giving me back some of my money. Taxpayer's money.

But how far can that go? And how does that help the gomen's huge debt deficit? The more free money you dish out the higher will be the gomen debt.

What does this mean? It means the more time passes, the situation is going to get worse for the ruling coalition. The standard of living and the quality of life of the ordinary people are not improving that much. The longer you wait the higher the risk.

Then there are other unexpected  "Iranian ballistic missiles" that can explode from out of nowhere. Who knows what other corruption scandals are going to pop up. Who knows what Rafizi or Chegubard may expose over the next few weeks or months. Or what Bloomberg, CNA or the Wall Street Journal might suddenly expose. 

So time is not on their side. 

Time is their enemy. 

The more time passes the higher the risk for them.

And the DAP must remember this - if you hang on to a sinking boat - it means you will be pulled down also.

HAMAS KICKED OUT OF QATAR. GUESS WHERE THEY ARE COMING TO?

Two days ago it was reported in the Middle East media that Qatar is kicking out the Hamas leaders and other Hamas members who have been living there for at least 15 years or longer. 

• Qatar instructed Hamas to leave its territory
• following Hamas failure to denounce Iranian strikes on Gulf countries 
• significant shift in Qatar which hosted Hamas since 2012 
• expulsion leaves Hamas with few alternative safe havens
• Turkey unlikely to welcome them 

This also means that Muslim Brotherhood members (who are exactly the same as Hamas) will also be asked to leave Qatar. Erdogan in Turkey, the other traditional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, does not want the Hamas fellows to come to Turkey either. Europe is also a no go. 

So where will the Hamas fellows go? Anybody wants to make a wild ass guess?  

SRI LANKA ADA AKAL

 

Sri Lanka pun sudah ada akal:

Bantuan RM250, RM500:

civil servants Grade 15 including those on contract will receive RM500
pensioners and veterans will receive RM250 
“This assistance is also exempt from income tax”
RM500 to 70,000 imams, bilal, siak, marbut, KAFA, takmir teachers

You get some ANG POW. I keep the big money.  
Gambar hiasan saja. AI generated.
Dont get too teruja

My Comments: We should be thankful to the Chinese, Indians and Malays who work hard, generate wealth, earn money and profits from which they contribute tax revenue to the gomen. Then the above scene is made possible.

GENERAL ISMAIL KAHANI, COMMANDER OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONAR GUARDS CORP (IRGC) WAS A MOSSAD AGENT

 

Here is an interesting nine minute video: