- US strikes hit southern Iran
- strikes overnight on Saturday
- explosions in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
- US warplanes struck city of Shadagan in southern Iran on Sunday (today)
- eighth consecutive night of strikes against Iran
- hit Iranian coastal surveillance and air defense facilities
- Several locations on Qeshm Island in Strait of Hormuz targeted by US strikes
My Comments:
The past eight days the US has been striking targets in southern Iran, around the Bandar Abbas, Straits of Hormuz area (report above). The media is speculating that the US will invade Kharg Island, Iran's oil export terminal which is located far to the north hundreds of kilometers from Hormuz. Kharg Island exports 90% of Iran's oil.
However with the US reimposing the naval blockade against Iran since the 14th July invading Kharg Island will not serve any military objective. Iran's oil exports are now effectively zero because of the naval blockade against the entire Iranian coastline. They do not need to invade Kharg Island, and also risk casualties, to cut off Iran's oil exports.
Also if the extensive oil facilities on Kharg Island are destroyed the US will certainly take the blame. World opinion will hold the Americans responsible for any disaster on Kharg Island.
Looking at the intense bombardment of southern Iran and also against the SEVEN islands in the Straits of Hormuz - Qeshm Island, Greater and Lesser Tunb, Abu Musa Island, Larak Island and Hormuz Island (plus one more) - it appears that the US may take these islands instead. Militarily this would be the better option - the forces required to take these islands would be much smaller (except Qeshm Island), potential casualties could be minimised and holding these islands would be less taxing on the US Navy.
Strategically speaking, taking these SEVEN islands would completely knock out all the Iranian staging and launching areas for attacks into the Straits of Hormuz. The US would completely own the entire Straits of Hormuz - both on the Iranian and the Oman sides of the straits.
The US must face the fact that the Iranian regime is never going to surrender or negotiate terms. This is not a democracy. Iran is no more a theocracy either. The IRGC has completely taken over the country and the era of the mullas has actually ended. The mullas are never coming back. The IRGC will not allow them back. And for all intents and purposes Mojtaba Khamenei is dead.
With the Israeli Mossad and the CIA having so much influence in covert operations inside Iran, it is not impossible that the regime change has already happened. But they do not know it yet. Maybe Iran is already in a transition phase.
Since the IRGC will not surrender the US may have to put boots on the ground. But it would be suicidal to put American boots on the ground on the Iranian mainland. Also it is not necessary. That naval blockade and taking those seven islands in the Straits of Hormuz can bring things to a conclusion.
Things are drawing to a conclusion quite fast. Lets see what happens.
p.s. I feel that what is happening has been planned all along - by the US and allies.
