Wednesday, April 29, 2026

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES QUITS OPEC. A 'SHEIKHY' SITUATION.

 


Here is some news: 

UAE quitting OPEC
heavy blow to OPEC and Saudi Arabia
éxit of UAE create disarray and weakens OPEC
UAE decided after careful look at OPEC's energy strategies
UAE did not consult with Saudi 
UAE exit from OPEC is a win for President Trump
he accused OPEC of "ripping off rest of the world" by high oil prices
Trump has linked US military support for Gulf with oil prices
saying US defends OPEC members, but they "impose high oil prices"
UAE criticized Arabs for not doing enough to protect it against Iran 
UAE criticized Arab and Gulf countries' response to Iranian attacks 
GCC countries politically and militarily weakest historically
weak stance from GCC countries 


MY COMMENTS:

In 2016, during his first term as president Mr Trump famously told the Saudis that without the American security cover Saudi Arabia would not last for more than two weeks. Here he is: 



The same method is being applied to the UAE now. 

But world oil prices increased slightly yesterday, the exit of the UAE did not push down oil prices. Because oil prices are still determined by good old 'supply and demand'. Big producers like  Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and the United States affect the supply side. 

World oil production is about 100 million barrels per day (mbpd). The US consumes 20 mbpd and China consumes 16 mbpd.

With the exit of the UAE it will now become a little bit more difficult for OPEC to insist on high prices.  It also weakens OPEC's production quotas system. 

Saudi Arabia remains the dominant player in OPEC (largest spare capacity, swing producer).  But there is more burden on Riyadh to stabilize prices (deeper/longer cuts if needed).

More significantly the world's perception of OPEC shifts from being a solid “cohesive cartel” to a cracking-up, Saudi-led coalition. 

The Arab countries, especially the oil producer GCC (Gulf) countries want to see the US (and Israel) decisively defeat Iran and change the Iranian regime. Of course this gives the US (and Israel) even more leverage in the Middle East.