Here is the oil price chart (West Texas) for the past 30 days.
Despite all the ongoing Hormuz bullshit, in the past 30 days West Texas crude has gone from US$90 per barrel down to US$68 per barrel to yesterday's US$71 per barrel. These prices are relatively low. Oil is not likely to hit US$100 - maybe never.
In 2024 Saudi Arabia cancelled capacity expansion to 13 million barrels per day.
1 million bpd of future capacity was cancelled. Saudi's present capacity ≈ 12 million bpd. But actual production ≈ 9 million bpd. Shortfall ≈ 3 million bpd
- World oil supply is now about 105 million bpd.
- World oil demand is just below 104 million bpd.
- Despite the ayatollah monkeys, world oil supply exceeds demand.
- China consumes 16 million bpd of oil (about 15%). This is disappearing.
- Please take note.
But here is the real threat on the horizon. It is called Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR) and it is Made in China. It does not need cooling water, no danger of Fukushima or Chernobyl accidents, it can be built small and modular (possibly in 12-18 months by the Chinese) and it runs on super abundant thorium - which is a waste product from many mining operations. China has enough Thorium to last them 20,000 years or more.
Here are two videos you must watch. Maximum 15 minutes. You can double the speed on YouTube.
The Chinese are planning to build ultra large container ships powered by thorium molten salt reactors.
- Thorium molten salt reactor (TMSR) powered container ships
- Producing roughly 50 MW electrical power
- Extraordinary endurance - decades without conventional refuelling
- Ship size: about 230,000–250,000 tonnes carrying 24,000 containers
It will be the end of bunker fuel for Chinese container ships. And 250,000 tonne giants will lower transport costs from the Port of Shanghai to Los Angeles. Pinduoduo will give 50% discounts.
The Chinese already have a prototype TMSR up and running since 2023. It is rated at 2MW thermal and is located in Gansu in the Gobi Desert. See picture.
No ventilation chimneys, no cooling towers, no cooling ponds. No need for water.
They are already planning a 10 MW or larger TMSR plant by 2030 - only FOUR years away. I estimate that in another six years after that (2036) the Chinese will have these TMSR plants popping up all over China.
Now here comes the scary part. Below here is the projection for Chinese consumption of fossil fuels over the next FIVE years. I have shown this chart not too long ago. Even without TMSR reactors, Chinese oil consumption is already slowing down. The chart shows that from 2027 - 28 onwards Chinese consumption of fossil fuels will start decreasing. China has invested heavily in solar energy, wind energy, hydro and other renewables. Plus their entire motor vehicle industry is switching to EV - which is more energy efficient.
So guess what is going to happen when the Chinese begin building TMSR reactors on a larger scale throughout China - after 2030.
This picture should give you an idea.
