Most analysts have got it completely wrong about the Middle East. The Middle East is not going anywhere anytime.
There are grave dangers facing the Middle East namely the end of oil which has already happened twice - in 2014 oil prices hit US$55.00 per barrel and six years later in 2020 (Covid) oil hit negative US$-40 per barrel.
Now another SIX years later the Iran crisis has basically killed off or severely dented the Gulf economies (UAE, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia). This is a political crisis. Despite tensions, oil prices are not exactly super high. Oil slipped below US$82 yesterday. The real Middle East crisis - the end of oil, is on its way. Not too far away.
Along with the Gulf problems, countries like Egypt, Pakistan and Bangladesh which depend on the billions of US Dollars sent home by their workers toiling in the Middle East will also be severely affected. It will be bad news for some time. Because these are largely only-one-item-on-the-menu economies. Oil. They do not produce much else, they cannot compete, you do not see any recognisable brand names coming out of these countries. Meaning they are non productive and non competitive.
This scenario here will happen.
There are two other seriously damaging factors that have actually already destroyed the Middle East (and here we must stretch the Middle East into Afghanistan and Pakistan, both of which share a border with Iran). One is irrational state actors and the other one is of course religion.
Other than Israel there are no democracies in the Middle East.
- Turkey has democratic systems but Erdogan will most likely remain the Ottoman Caliph for life. He has now been running Turkey for almost 24 years. Is that democracy? Really?
- Pakistan can have all the elections it wants but the Army calls all the shots.
- They are all irrational actors. What makes them irrational? All their actions are designed to keep themselves in power. And of course in money. It is no more complicated than that.
- And you thought they are committed to a free Palestine, Islamic brotherhood and other strange ideas like that.
Religion is a tool to be used to manipulate the masses. Use religion to stir up the mobs on the street, use religion to blacklist your enemies, use religion to fool the supporters, use religion to collect money, use religion as an excuse to spend money.
After 13 years in exile in Najaf in Iraq, the Ayatollah Khomeini returned triumphant to Teheran in 1979. Two years later the Iran-Iraq War began. It would last eight years and cost about two million dead. For what? No territory was won or lost. They did not know what they were fighting over. Nothing was achieved. Both the Ayatollah Khomeini and Saddam Hussein in Iraq were irrational actors. In 1990 Saddam invaded Kuwait. Disaster. That was the period of 'nationalism'. Mainly Arab nationalism - all of which ended in failure.
So they turned to religion. Jihad was launched. More irrational behaviour was launched.
- 1994 1st Taliban regime: → captured Kabul 1996 → overthrown 2001.
- Al-Qaeda: founded 1988 → dispersed after U.S. invasion of Afghanistan 2001
- 2021 the 2nd Taliban regime: captured Kabul 15 Aug 2021 → still in power.
- 2013 ISIS emerged → lost last stronghold in Syria March 2019
- 1987 Hamas founded → Israel has severely degraded its military capability
- Hezbollah : emerged 1982–83 → Israel severely degraded its capability
- Houthis (Yemen): emerged 1990s → severely degraded its military capability
- Iraqi Shia militias / Kata'ib Hezbollah: emerged 2003–07 → armed Iraqi faction
By 2026 most of these jihadi movements and ideologies have also been soundly defeated. Iran has been completely crippled - both militarily and economically.
Both nationalism and religion have failed because the Arabs and Persians used both to fight and kill each other. The ISIS declared a caliphate. Ok and then what? What did they achieve? The ISIS did not say lets muster our religion and our nationalism to make and sell the best washing machine in the world. Or lets provide clean drinking water to all our people. No such thing happened.
Turkey is trying to flex their military muscles but Turkey is completely at the mercy of the US and the West. Turkish Bayraktar drones have proven to be completely useless in Ukraine. Turkey has tried to move its military and some weapons into Syria - including anti aircraft systems. Syria does not even have an airforce. So the Israelis promptly bombed the Turkish equipment sitting in hangars at an airbase inside Syria - the Abu al-Duhur airbase. What is more relevant is that this airbase is about 32 kilometers from the Turkish border. The Israelis were making it known to the Turks that another 32 kilometers was just a flip of their wingtips.
There are no real tensions in the Middle East for Malaysia to worry about. The Middle East is full of clan fighting, sectarian squabbles, ethnic hatreds and such. Tribal behaviours. They are safeguarding their own survival. In the process they can burn down their own countries. These are idiotic and irrational actors. That is all.
It will be a complete waste of time for Malaysia to get involved with all these murderous regimes in the Middle East. They are fighting for power and money. They are fighting for their own interests. There is absolutely no higher calling in the entire Middle East.
Let us just mind our own business.
