Russia has achieved a major first step in negotiating a ceasefire by getting the United States to remove economic sanctions against Russian wheat and fertiliser that have nothing to do with the Ukraine war. The economic sanctions were engineered by the British and the Biden administration not only to cripple Russia's economy but also to deny Europe and the rest of the world abundant supplies of Russian wheat and fertiliser.
The Russians have also cleverly negotiated the lifting of sanctions against Russian banks involved in the agricultural and fertiliser export trades. This will also mean the unfreezing of Russian banking assets, and as a logical follow through Russian funds in foreign banks and Russian assets in foreign countries. (Recall the west 'seized' yachts and homes belonging to Russians that were located in the US and Europe).
The US has also agreed that the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline will be reopened - with the Americans possibly taking equity or funding the pipeline. Considering that Nordtsream 2 goes directly from Russia to Germany it also means that cheap Russian gas will flow again into Germany. Germany will be saved. The British are totally pissed.
In return both sides (Russia and Ukraine) will immediately cease attacks against energy infrastructure (all kinds of electricity generating power plants). Which is fine.
No concessions have been agreed on giving up territories captured in the war by either side. The Russians have the solid upper hand here because they already took control of the four Russian majority provinces or oblasts very early in the war (2022). They will be keeping those areas. The Russians also want the port of Odessa but that could be a negotiating card.
The Russians also want a clear timetable for democratic elections in Ukraine (possibly minus Zelenskiyy running again).
And to make the whole thing work, the Russians have insisted that the United States stands as the guarantor for all the terms of the ceasefire. The American guarantee will only be as good as Donald Trump and the Republicans remaining in power.
Here is Emil Cosman with a short report.
