Wednesday, July 9, 2025

NEW MOVES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

 

 

Perhaps the biggest news coming out of the Middle East today is that the Kurdish Peshmerga or PKK is negotiating an end to armed conflict (with Turkey).

The PKK was formally established by Abdullah Ocalan in 1978. The organisation was primarily committed to the creation of an independent Kurdish state in south-eastern Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Their base is in the border areas between Iran and Iraq.

There already is an Iraqi Kurdistan (Kurdish Autonomous Region) inside Iraq.

The Kurdistan Region, also known as Iraqi Kurdistan, is a semi-autonomous region in northern Iraq. It is officially governed by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and is recognized as a federal entity within Iraq. The region borders Turkey, Iran, and Syria, and its capital is Erbil.

The PKK is negotiating peace with Turkey.

The PKK is currently negotiating peace with the Turkish government. These negotiations are part of a broader peace process aimed at resolving the decades-long conflict between the PKK and Turkey. 

There are 45 million Kurdish people in this part of the world - all located in adjacent regions in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Here is the catch - in Iraq and Syria the Kurdish regions are also "occupied" by the United States troops. The Kurdish are allies with the US and Israel. And the Israelis are also strongly behind the Kurds who are Sunni Muslims.  The Kurds are neither Arab nor Persian. They have their own language. Plus Saladin the Great was a Kurdish general. The Kurds are none too crazy about Arabs, Persians, jihadism or religious fanaticism. 

The Israelis and Americans favour a brand new Sunni Kurdish country (or united Kurdish autonomous region) as a buffer zone between them and Shia Iran. If it happens the Kurds will likely recognise Israel and enter the Abrahamic Accords as well.  All this has been possible with the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria and the rise of Ahmad Jolani as the head honcho in Damascus.  However Jolani has control of Damascus only and a portion of Syria. The Kurdish parts are quite independent of Jolani. Jolani is fully supported by the EU, the US, the Saudis and Israel.  Putting it another way Jolani is fully dependent on the EU, the US, the Saudis and Israel. 

Here is an interesting picture. The Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi stopped in Jeddah yesterday for a meeting with MBS, the Saudi Crown Prince. This is the first meeting between an Iranian representative and the Arab world since the Israeli air strikes that began on 13 June 2025 (Qatar does not count).

 

You can see the body language in the picture. Like MBS is confidently saying, 'You got your ass kicked'. And the Iranian replying, 'Yes we did get our ass kicked'. Then MBS says, 'And your pants are too tight. Did you get them made in Malaysia?'   

Here is a flightradar24.com mapping of flights in the Middle East (this is a screen shot from today 9 July).  As you can clearly see flights are being diverted AROUND Iran.The blue lines. Very few flights are seen inside Iranian airspace. Those few flights inside Iranian airspace are overflights (Moscow-Dubai etc) or the Iranian football team returning from Turkey on a special chartered flight.  

 

Iranian airspace is actually closed. Teheran Airport is shut down or operating at minimum levels. Obviously it is not the Iranians who have shut down their own airspace. Whatever for?  Considering that the Israeli airstrikes first took place on June 13, it has been almost a month since Iranian airspace has been effectively closed. This will become a great embarrassment for the ayatollahs. Iranian airspace is still closed. 

Yesterday the Israeli PM visited Washington for the THIRD time in just a few weeks.  Either to concur or to convince. But it looks like the chess pieces are being moved around in the Middle East. 

Here is a brief video: 

https://youtu.be/4TedS1FesiU?si=ALT3-fslEJEsv4Qg