Here is Amit Sengupta with some reporting and analysis on the situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
I believe the biggest factor is indeed money for the Pakistani generals and senior officers.
Beginning 1979 when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, that country has been a huge source of income for the Pakistani generals. Afghanistan is landlocked and the nearest functioning port is Karachi. The US channelled billions of dollars to the Afghan mujaheddin who were fighting the Soviets during their occupation of Afghanistan (1979 to 1989). Money for training and arming the mujaheddin all flowed through the Pakistani generals - and they took a big cut for their services. From 1989 till now (?) Afghanistan became the world's largest supplier of opium and heroine. That is a huge industry that requires chemicals for processing, farm equipment and most importantly Toyota Land Cruisers to provide logistics for the drug trade. The world's largest Toyota Land Cruiser dealership was at Peshawar in Pakistan. And also the diesel needed for the trucks. So they had people known as 'Maulana Diesel' who 'monopolised' running diesel from Peshawar into Afghanistan. 'Running diesel' also meant shooting business rivals. Monopoly to the extreme. The Pakistani generals had a big hand in all this money.
Then came 9-11. Then the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and stayed there for 20 years. This was a 20 year Christmas party for the Pakistani generals. Over 20 years the amount of money, weapons, soldiers, food for the US Army etc etc bla bla ran into the hundreds of billions of US Dollars. Karachi port was the main point of entry. And from Karachi thousands of trucks (usually run by the Pakistani generals) transported all the war goods overland into Afghanistan. The Pakistani Army providing security all the way. An American who ventured into Afghanistan and opened a bar to serve beer to the US soldiers became almost a billionaire by venturing into supplying all sorts of other needs of the US occupying forces. The money flowed like water. The Pakistani generals also got super rich. Well all good things must come to an end. The Taliban took Kabul on 15th August, 2021. The US Army money dried up for the Pakistani generals. Plus Afghanistan is now friendly with Russia and China. There is plenty of cross border trade with Russia and China (through Tajikistan) which bypasses the Pakistani Army's clutches. The generals cannot collect tolls.
Hence one of the rumours floating around last week was that the Pakistani Army wanted to invade and grab Afghanistan's 'Wakhan Corridor'. This is a narrow strip of 'turkey's neck' that connects Afghanistan to China (SHADED BROWN IN THE MAP).
The area is super rugged and is mainly traversed on horseback and donkeys. But it is not impossible for the Chinese to build a super highway or a rail line into Afghanistan - who knows in about a month or two? All this means that the Pakistani generals will lose even more clout in Afghanistan. Clout is the currency used by the Pak generals. 1 Clout = US$2.00.
But this time the Pakistani generals are going to lose their heads and they are going to lose a quarter of their country. As Amit Sengupta says the Pakistani officer corps seeks money, business careers and retirement options. They are not into serious fighting. Fight for what?
On the other side, for the first time since 1973 the Pushtun tribe is fully in charge in Afghanistan. And they have 43 million Pushtun cousins exactly on the border in Pakistan who want to live together with their cousins in Afghanistan.
Plus the Pakistani Army is dominated by the Punjabis who make up about 45-50% of Pakistan's 230 million people. The Pushtuns make up almost 50 million people or just over 20% of the population.
The problem for the Pak Army is this map above. The green is the Pushtun areas inside Pakistan. About 20% of the country's land area. The problem is the major part of the Pak Army does not speak Pashto. If there is full blown war the Afghan Taliban will be entering Pushtun territory inside Pakistan that shares the same mother tongue and identifies with them. The Punjabi dominated army will be entering an area that does not speak their language and which will be hostile to them (and friendly with the enemy). I foresee plenty massacres up ahead. I also see the Pakistanis losing territory.
The Afghan Pushtuns are determined to "liberate" their cousins living inside Pakistan and the Pak Pushtuns are also eager to join their Afghan cousins. Together they will become the dominant alpha wolves in Afghanistan.
The Baloch people may also rise up and fight to liberate their Baloch territory in the south of Pakistan. The Baloch do not have the numbers in Pakistan (about five million) but they do have vast territory - perfect for guerrilla warfare.
This time Pakistan is really screwed. This is what happens when mothers tell their children NOT to go out and play with the other children.
