Egypt U - Turn On Gaza Relocation

 

• Egyptian President El-Sisi said ready to host half  million Gazans 
• according to Friday report by pro-Hezbollah Lebanese paper Al-Akhbar
• Gazans would be allocated a city in north of Sinai Peninsula.
• comment during conference in Riyadh where Sisi  was present 
• has raised concerns with Jordan
• In Feb President Trump announced Gaza relocation plan 
• to relocate Gazans to Egypt and Jordan
• In March, Egypt announced own US$53b reconstruction plan for Gaza

 

My Comments : Once again proving that never trust what the Arab leaders say in public. They will say anything in public. 'My horse flew over the moon'. But in their private gatherings they will say and do something else. Egypt and Jordan had both publicly rejected any plan to relocate the Gazans. This Lebanese newspaper says Egypt will now host 500,000 Gazans "temporarily".

What made the Egyptians change their mind? Most likely money. They have proposed a US$53 Billion reconstruction plan for Gaza. Where will that money come from? Egypt is almost bankrupt. That money has to come from the Arabs.

But there is no way the Israelis are going to let the Egyptians and certainly not the Qataris just waltz into Gaza after more than 2,000 Israelis have died in this conflict and it has cost the Israelis so many billions of US Dollars in this war thus far.  I believe Israel will end up handing over Gaza or a portion of Gaza back to Egypt but that is going to take time. Quite some time. 

The reality on the ground is Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE exist at the almost complete discretion of the United States. As President Trump 45 said directly to the face of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in 2016 (when he first became president) if the US withdraws its support Saudi Arabia would not last two weeks.  The same can be said for Egypt, Jordan,  Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE. 

If the US really has a plan to rebuild Gaza, which requires the temporary relocation of the Gazan people to the Sinai and they need the Egyptians to agree then the Egyptians will agree. Hence this report in the Lebanese newspaper.

Sinai is next door to Gaza. Here is a map of Gaza and north Sinai - showing the port city of El Arish along the Mediterranean coast of Sinai. I mention El Arish because this port city has been mentioned before as a relocation spot for the Gazans. It is about 40 km from the Egyptian-Gaza border. Meaning any relocation from Gaza will be less than an hour's drive.

Of course tons of Arab money will then flow into El Arish to build houses, schools, hospitals, etc for at least half a million Gazans. This is where the Egyptian generals will get their cut of the money. This is perhaps why President El Sisi agreed. Big money is involved. It is likely the Egyptian president was playing hard to get earlier to hold out for more money. This is the Middle East. There is a right price for everything. And I believe the Qataris will be made to pay. As a punishment for their being Hamas-on-steroids.

The largest US military base in the Middle East is located in Qatar - it is called Al Udeid. Qatar paid for it 100%. It is Qatar's life insurance policy. Without the American military presence at Al Udeid, Qatar would not last two weeks. The Saudis would have invaded this tiny, pip squeak of a country long ago. Out of 3.0 million population, 90% or over 2.7 million people are foreigners. "Native" Qataris make up 10% or about 300,000 people only. That is an extremely tiny and vulnerable "native" population of Qataris. As the Malay saying goes, they really live like 'telur di hujung tanduk'. - like a chicken egg balanced on the tip of a bull's horn. One small shake of the head and Qatar can go flying.

Of course President Trump knows this very well too.  President Trump told the Ukrainian Zelenskiyy 'You do not have any cards'. Similarly he can tell the Arabs 'you dont even know what a card is'.

Lets see what happens.